The Atlantic hurricane season may already be over if previous super El Niños are a guide, at least when it comes to any tropical threat to the mainland U.S.

Quiet for a while

As you can see in the map below, there aren't any areas with a significant chance of development in the next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

In fact, there's not a really strong signal in any of the forecast models, including AI models, for the next two weeks in the Atlantic Basin.

(MORE: AI models shined again during Hurricane Isaias)

Have we seen our last hurricane for 2026?

The short answer is "it's probably over, as far as a significant threat goes."

Officially, the Atlantic hurricane season goes through the end of November.

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But wind shear typically becomes stronger as we head toward November. And that shear is being enhanced by the current super El Niño. Wind shear is hostile for systems trying to become tropical storms.

What's a typical hurricane season?

An average hurricane season from late October through November would total two more storms, one hurricane and one major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger), according to the National Hurricane Center.

Since 1966, when satellites first fully watched over the tropical Atlantic Basin, the last storm of the season typically formed on Nov. 5.

Last year, Category 5 Hurricane Melissa formed in late October, but was the last storm of the 2025 hurricane season.

The typical areas of tropical development in October and November are shown in the animation below. Notice the area shrinks markedly in November, as ocean water cools and wind shear increases.

Past super El Niño season endings

Of the previous five hurricane seasons during a super El Niño, three of those seasons managed to produce at least another storm from late October through November.

As you can see in the map below, only one became a hurricane: Kate in early November 2015. But that one steered into the open North Atlantic.

Two other storms were "fish storms" in the central Atlantic in 1965 (unnamed) and 1972 (Delta). But one mid-October tropical storm did curl back toward Florida in 1965.

So if history is a guide, we can't completely write the conclusion of the season yet. But the chance of another impactful hurricane like Isaias the rest of this season seems very low.

(MORE: Hurricane Isaias recap)

Historic season?

If no more storms form, here's how the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season would measure up:

• 9 storms: Fewest since 2014, which had eight storms
• 1 hurricane: Fewest in modern era; 1982 and 2013 had two hurricanes each
• 18 ACE units: Second-lowest in modern era, only slightly ahead of 1983 (17.4)

(Accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, is a measurement meteorologists use to not just count storms, but also how long each storm lasts and how strong each becomes. Adding the ACE of each storm gives us one measure of how active a season is.)

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Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.