If you're already dreaming of a white Christmas, look away.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its winter outlook on Thursday, and it's calling for warmer-than-average temperatures December through February throughout most of the United States.

And it's all thanks to the Super El Niño.

(MORE: Your Complete Guide To Everything El Niño)

NOAA’s October update gives this El Niño an 83% chance of being the strongest since records began in 1950, up from 75% a month ago. Here's how recent Super El Niños have affected Christmas weather in the U.S.

2015, the last Super El Niño

This will be the first Super El Niño since 2015. For the millions of people living in the biggest city in the U.S., that might conjure up one standout weather memory: 72 degrees on Christmas Eve at Central Park.

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It shattered the previous record high of 63 degrees. People were out and about in shorts and T-shirts, going for jogs through the city and enjoying the comfortable weather. Christmas Day, while not quite as warm, also broke the record when Central Park reached 66 degrees.

Cities across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic also saw record warmth, from Boston to Washington, D.C., with temperatures hovering around 70.

(MORE: Don't fall for these myths about El Niño)

The Super El Niño impacts weren't limited to the East Coast, either. The Super El Niño helped fuel a severe storm system that triggered a deadly tornado outbreak in Mississippi and catastrophic river flooding in Missouri and Illinois during Christmas weekend.

Simultaneously, Winter Storm Goliath formed on Christmas Day and delivered a brutal blizzard with heavy snow and 80-mph winds across New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle, severely disrupting holiday travel and livestock.

1997, record Christmas rain

NOAA's winter outlook also says it's expecting a wetter-than-average winter throughout the southern half of the U.S., as well as the Eastern Seaboard. This harkens back to the 1997–98 Super El Niño, when Tampa, Florida, swapped its typical sunny holiday skies for unprecedented, torrential downpours on Christmas Day.

A displaced southern jet stream funneled a relentless parade of moisture-laden storms across the Gulf Coast, leading Tampa to record 1.53 inches of rainfall on Dec. 25 — the wettest Christmas Day in the city's recorded history.

The holiday deluge capstoned an extraordinarily soggy month where Tampa received a staggering 14 inches of rain, completely transforming what is normally Florida's dry season into a deluge of saturated grounds and localized flooding.

(MORE: Winter is gaining steam; snow forecast to fall across Colorado, Utah, California next week)

That Super El Niño brought a cascade of dramatic weather anomalies across the rest of the United States on and around Christmas as well. Southern California experienced an extraordinary influx of atmospheric rivers that delivered torrential downpours, severe coastal swell and some mudslides, all of which would get worse as the winter progressed.

In the Southwest, Albuquerque, New Mexico, went through an unusually bleak holiday period with four consecutive days of no sun leading up to Christmas Eve. Farther east, excessive moisture surging off the Gulf triggered heavy flooding and localized storm outbreaks across coastal Texas and Louisiana.

Not a forecast

A warm signal doesn’t rule out snow, because El Niño winters can still bring big nor’easters loaded with moisture.

“As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Niño will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter.” 

This outlook from NOAA isn't a forecast, but odds are good that much of the country can expect warmer, wetter winter weather than usual.

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