The best ski resort isn't the one with the highest average snowfall. It's the one whose snow is most dependable in the season you're booking.

Three things predict that: how much a resort's snowfall swings year to year, how early you have to commit and why the average is just one data point, not a promise.

(MORE: It won't stop snowing in Chile as resorts tally feet of snow)

Snowfall swings

Snowfall swings are changes in how much snow falls week to week, month to month or year to year.

A resort's average is a useful benchmark. But it doesn't capture what you'll actually experience on the slopes.

Take Alta Ski Area in Utah. It averages nearly 548 inches a year. Yet it saw 628 inches in 2023-24, 537.5 inches in 2024-25 and just 321 inches last winter.

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That's a 300-plus-inch swing in three seasons.

Mammoth Mountain shows a similar pattern. It averages 350 inches a season. It got 367 inches in 2023-24, then dropped to 286 inches in 2024-25, about 82% of average, before ticking up slightly to 297 inches last winter.

The average is one number, not a guarantee

Alta's 548-inch average blends a 628-inch winter with a 321-inch one. Mammoth's 350-inch average blends a 367-inch winter with a 286-inch one.

An average gives you the midpoint. It doesn't tell you the range or which end of it you'll land on.

Three factors drive that range:

Elevation

Higher elevations are colder, so the same storm can bring snow to the summit and rain to the base. Check a resort's base and summit elevation.

Location

Not every mountain gets the same storms. The jet stream and patterns like El Niño decide where snow falls. Check monthly totals, not just the yearly one.

Temperature

Fresh snow is one thing, keeping it is another. Warm spells melt it; cold, humid air helps resorts make more. Check temperature trends and snowmaking capacity.

(MORE: 30-plus inches of new snow and counting: South America's wonderful winter)

How early you have to commit

The earlier you book, the less you know about the winter you're buying into.

Passes and early-bird deals sell in spring and summer, months before any storm pattern shows up. By the time December or January conditions are known, you're already locked in.

A pass bought in Summer 2025 off Alta's 628-inch 2023-24 season would have bought into a very different winter than the 321 inches that actually fell.

Booking smarter

Look past the average, and compare snowfall across several recent winters.

Check the month you're visiting, how often it snows and how much that's varied from year to year.

Once the season is underway, check how it's actually trending, like current snowpack or early-season totals, against that average before locking in a late-season trip.

(MORE: Inside the huge, 100-plus inch blizzard at Ski Portillo)

Faiza Mohammed is a meteorologist intern at weather.com. She studied geography and worked with the Weather Dawgs team at the University of Georgia. She also received her master's in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences from the Georgia Institute of Technology.