Warm ocean temperatures tied to El Niño are changing how blueberries grow in Peru, one of the world's leading blueberry exporters.

The effects could reach American grocery stores thousands of miles away.

El Niño is changing Peru's harvest

According to the Royal Geographical Society, Peru's coast is normally dry, with the cool Humboldt Current flowing up from the south. In an El Niño year, a warm current moving east across the Pacific overpowers it and the weather pattern shifts from dry, high pressure to a rainier, tropical, low pressure setup.

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And the blueberries are feeling it.

The Peruvian Blueberry Growers Association (Proarándanos) says El Niño is "having a more severe impact than initially anticipated," with faster crop development, somewhat smaller berries and weaker yields in some varieties.

As a result, the group lowered its 2026-27 export forecast to about 366,000 metric tons, or roughly 807 million pounds. That's 4.4% below last season's 383,000, about 17,000 fewer.

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This is Peru's total export forecast, not just the share headed to the U.S.

It matters for your grocery cart

Peru is a major supplier of fresh blueberries to the U.S. in the fall and winter, when domestic production slows. According to the USDA, Peru accounted for about 56% of U.S. fresh blueberry imports in 2025, a record of nearly 406 million pounds.

The timing matters. Imports from Peru are highest from September to February, which helps keep American grocery stores stocked outside the peak domestic growing season.

With a smaller harvest expected this season, there could be fewer Peruvian berries to ship. However, the actual impact depends on shipments from other countries and overall market conditions.

If Peru's harvest keeps falling short of last season, fewer berries could reach U.S. stores this winter and that tighter supply could ripple through to blueberry prices at the checkout.

Follow our El Niño page for the latest coverage and what it means for the U.S. and the world.

Faiza Mohammed is a meteorologist intern at weather.com. She studied geography and worked with the Weather Dawgs team at the University of Georgia. She also received her master's in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences from the Georgia Institute of Technology.