America's hottest year on record is likely to be in 2026, according to just-released government data and the nation's temperature outlook through December.

Record pace through October

The mean temperature over the Lower 48 states from January through October was 4.2 degrees warmer (Fahrenheit) than the 20th-century average, according to data released Monday by NOAA.

That's the warmest first 10 months of any year in the contiguous U.S. in NOAA records dating to 1895.

As you can see in the graph above, 2026's warmth is well ahead of 2012's record January through October pace by almost a full degree.

States, cities on record pace

The map below, also from NOAA's October data release, shows just how many of the Lower 48 states have been record-warm this year through October, from the West to the Plains and parts of the Southeast.

Eighteen states have been record-warm so far, including Arizona, California, Colorado, Tennessee and Texas.

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Over 50 major cities are on a record-warm year pace as well, according to NOAA and the Southeast Regional Climate Center. Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Las Vegas and Phoenix are among those.

Full year record clinched?

November has started markedly warmer than average over much of the country, according to Alaska-based climatologist Brian Brettschneider.

As of the time this article was written, much of the country was forecast to remain generally warmer than average into Thanksgiving week.

And December could be even more anomalously mild, especially over the Midwest and Northeast.

Given how far ahead of the record pace 2026 has been through October and the general outlook through December, it appears likely 2026 will easily finish above 2024, America's warmest year in NOAA's 132-year database.

The Lower 48 had its record-warmest March, July, August and September in 2026. July was also the nation's hottest single month, and summer (June through August) was also the record-hottest in the U.S., according to NOAA.

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Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.