Summer Outlook: It’s Gonna Be A Hot One

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S​ummer 2024 is likely to be one of the hottest on record in the United States, according to an updated outlook released Friday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.

The heat will be widespread. Above-average temperatures are expected from the Southwest and Rockies to the East Coast, with parts of the Midwest, Plains, northern New England and the Southwest being the most above average.

"We've run out of superlatives to describe what we expect as an historic summer." - Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology, Atmospheric G2

The lone exception may be the West Coast, from western Washington to Southern California. Temperatures there could be pretty typical for summer as a whole, running slightly above or below average.

T​his type of pattern – where the biggest heat in summer is expected from the Rockies eastward, while more moderate temperatures affect the West Coast – matches what past history shows when El Niño transitions to La Niña, like we expect to see this summer.

Crawford said he expects each successive summer month to be hotter, relative to average, than the previous month. W​ith that in mind, here's what the monthly breakdown looks like.

Heat shifts into high gear by July. Much of the northern tier from New England to the Great Lakes, much of the central and northern Plains and Rockies have the best chance to be hotter than average. Colorado and the adjacent High Plains may be the hottest, relative to average. Parts of the South and West Coast may be the few areas closer to average July temperatures.

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Dog days will be searing in August. The northern Plains and upper Midwest are likely to be much hotter than average in August. However, the general swath from the Southwest to the Great Lakes, upstate New York and northern New England should also have a hotter than usual August.

T​he Deep South and Gulf Coast may only be modestly warm. An active Atlantic hurricane season is one factor in that muted southern heat outlook. August is one of the three most active months of the hurricane season.

Heat will lag into September. Even though the fall equinox is in late September, don't expect the heat to relax much.

T​he upper Midwest, central Plains and Southwest are still most likely to be hotter than usual in September. However, much of the nation from the East Coast to the Rockies is also expected to skew warm.

Once again, the Deep South, Gulf Coast and Florida may not be much hotter than usual, possibly due to increased rainfall during the peak month of a busy hurricane season.

T​he only heat escape in September may be in the Pacific Northwest and near the California coast.

(192-hours: Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

Two recent summers were among the nation's hottest. In case you're curious, 1936 and 2021 are tied as the hottest summers in U.S. records dating to 1895, according to NOAA. Summer 2022, followed by 2012 and 2011, round out the top five.

A​ccording to Climate Central, summers have warmed in 230 U.S. locations by an average of 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit since 1970. They found 58% of those locations experience at least two more weeks of unusually hot summer days today than in 1970.