Why The Atlantic Hurricane Season's 'Slow Start' Is Likely Meaningless

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is awaiting its first storm and while it's the longest such wait in 10 years, history has shown a quiet early June isn't usually a predictor of what's to come.

Waiting for the "A". As of June 11, we're still waiting for the season's first storm, which will be named "Alberto".

T​he last time we had to wait this long for the season's first storm was 2014, when Arthur formed off Florida's Atlantic coast on July 1, then swiped eastern North Carolina as a hurricane in time for the Fourth of July.

O​ne year ago, we not only had the "A" storm (Arlene) in the Gulf of Mexico in early June, but also an unnamed subtropical storm in mid-January.

And seven recent hurricane seasons in a row - 2015 through 2021 - each had at least one storm before the "official" June 1 hurricane season kickoff.

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I​t's still very early. If you take nothing else away from this, remember it's still early. We're not even halfway through the first month of a six-month hurricane season.

A​ccording to the National Hurricane Center, the average date by which the first storm would have happened over the 1991-2020 hurricane seasons is June 20. So this wait isn't really unusual, it's just different than what we've seen lately.

Virtually all of the season is still ahead. Using a metric called the ACE index, over 98% of the hurricane season's activity is still to come in an average year.

The season's first hurricane usually holds off until August, the first of three months with the most activity.

D​eclaring this hurricane season a dud this early would be like saying a baseball team has blown its World Series chances after a slow start in early April.

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There are still danger signs. This quieter early June doesn't erase the worrisome factors we've been discussing all along.

-​ Ocean water is record warm for this time of year in much of the basin, from Africa to the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. All other factors equal, warmer water will support stronger hurricanes.

-​ A La Niña is likely to develop later in the season. That usually makes the atmosphere more supportive for tropical storms and hurricanes and could also steer more storms toward the U.S. instead of curling out to sea like last year.

W​hat did most active hurricane seasons look like this early? We examined June and July during the 10 most active hurricane seasons on record in the satellite era, based on the aforementioned ACE index – short for Accumulated Cyclone Energy. This index takes into account not just the number, but also the intensity and longevity of tropical storms and hurricanes.

J​une

S​even of the 10 busiest hurricane seasons had at least one June storm. That's not too out of line with an average June, which usually produces a storm every 1 to 2 years, as senior meteorologist Chris Dolce previously wrote. Three of those seasons - 2020, 2017 and 2005 - had two June storms.

F​ive of the 10 total storms in those 10 seasons made a U.S. landfall, all along the Gulf Coast. Another storm - Arthur in 1996 - brushed North Carolina.

O​nly one hurricane - Allison in 1995 - occurred in June, even in those most active seasons. And that was only briefly a hurricane in the eastern Gulf before striking Florida as a tropical storm.

S​o, overall, June can still be rather quiet even if it's expected to be a frenetic hurricane season, overall.

J​uly

Past hyperactive hurricane seasons became busy in July, instead of waiting for the August-October seasonal peak.

T​hese 10 most active seasons generated an average of two to three July storms and one hurricane. That's more than double the average of roughly one July storm and one July hurricane every two to three years.

A​mong the most notable July landfalls were 2005's Hurricane Dennis (Category 3) in the Florida Panhandle, Hurricane Emily (Category 4) near Cozumel and 1996's Hurricane Bertha in North Carolina. Two other July storms would eventually make August hurricane landfalls, including 2020's Isaias in the Carolinas and 1995's Erin in Florida.

O​nly two of those 10 most active seasons failed to generate a July storm. But one of those seasons - 2004 - produced a tropical depression on the last day of July that would then become Alex on August 1. And that season featured the notorious "Florida foursome" of hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne.

While every hurricane season can be different, these past busiest seasons suggest June may still be quieter than you might expect, but that could change quickly in July.

It's not too late to develop or refresh your hurricane plan. The time to do this is as soon as possible, not when a hurricane threat is just days away.

M​ORE ON WEATHER.COM

-​ America's Strongest Hurricanes Were Tropical Storms Just Days Away

-​ Hurricane Season Terms You Need To Know

-​ How Climate Change Is Affecting Hurricanes

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He completed a Bachelor's degree in physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then a Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.