From Strong El Niño To La Niña: How Past Hurricane Seasons Have Turned Out, And What Could Happen in 2024

El Niño is expected to become L​a Niña by summer, and that could be one significant factor making the 2024 hurricane season different than 2023, as past history has shown.

A​ transition is ahead: The strong El Niño that has been in place since last hurricane season is weakening. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, that's increasingly likely to become a La Niña by the upcoming hurricane season.

(​MORE: What is La Niña?)

W​hy it matters for hurricane season: I​n general, La Niña Atlantic hurricane seasons have less wind shear that can otherwise rip storms apart, and rising, unstable air that is more conducive for thunderstorms, the building blocks of tropical storms and hurricanes.

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H​ow active La Niña hurricane seasons can be: Meteorologists use a metric called the ACE index that sums up how long storms and hurricanes last and how strong they become, instead of just counting numbers of them.

S​ince the 1960s, moderate to strong La Niña hurricane seasons have been most active, 21% more active than an average season. It's not clear whether this La Niña will become moderate or strong by the 2024 hurricane season.

But any La Niña season has historically been more than twice as active as a moderate or strong El Niño season, which was in place last year.

S​trong El Niño vs. La Niña seasons: We examined back-to-back hurricane seasons in which a moderate to strong El Niño season was immediately followed by a La Niña season. That happened eight different times since the 1960s.

I​n general, an average of five more storms, four more hurricanes, and two more Category 3 or stronger hurricanes have developed in the La Niña season following a moderate or strong El Niño season.

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W​here it's more active a key difference: When we examine the hurricane tracks, we see an important difference.

F​irst, here are all the hurricane tracks of those nine moderate or strong El Niño hurricane seasons since the 1960s, including 2023.

W​e highlighted the key takeaway in each map. The La Niña seasons have much more hurricane activity in the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico than the preceding moderate or strong El Niño seasons had.

W​hat it could mean for 2024: We can't predict exactly where, if at all, hurricanes will strike the U.S. months in advance. But if a La Niña does develop, past history shows there's a greater risk, in general, for the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico this year compared to last year. Some longer-range forecast models are already hinting at that potential.

N​ot just La Niña: There is a large elephant in the room in addition to a possible La Niña.

U​niversity of Miami tropical scientist Brian McNoldy and others noted North Atlantic ocean temperatures have been at record-breaking levels for the time of year since last March.

"​As of now, multi-month forecasts indicate continued warm anomalies in the North Atlantic, meaning that a return to 'normal' is not very likely -- at least through the end of summer," McNoldy told weather.com.

"​Instead, ocean temperatures in 2024 are now breaking the records that were just set in 2023, so we are literally in uncharted waters heading into spring."

W​hile scientists cannot yet explain why the North Atlantic is so warm, assuming it persists, it will likely have impacts on the upcoming hurricane season.

All other factors equal, warmer ocean water can support stronger hurricanes. It can also allow more tropical development earlier in the season if such early-season suppressing factors as wind shear and dry air are less prevalent.

D​espite last year's strong El Niño, 20 storms and seven hurricanes formed. The record warm Atlantic Ocean likely played a key role overriding El Niño's typical suppressing influence, as weather.com tropical expert Jonathan Belles explained in our 2023 season recap.

P​repare every hurricane season: It's a well-worn phrase, but absolutely true. It only takes one hurricane strike in your area to make it an "active season", regardless of seasonal forecasts, La Niña or record warm water.

D​espite early forecasts of El Niño keeping a lid on the 2023 season, Hurricane Idalia still plowed into Florida as the Big Bend region's strongest landfall in 73 years,​ responsible for more than $3 billion in damage and 12 deaths in the U.S.

Prepare for this season as you would any other. A​ssume this could be the year a hurricane threatens your area, and develop or refresh your hurricane plan before a storm approaches.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He completed a Bachelor's degree in physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then a Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives.