USA National Forecast

Winter Outlook: Warmer Than Average For Many, Except The Northwest

At a Glance

Many in the U.S. are expected to be warmer than average this winter.
That's particularly the case from the South to the Mid-Atlantic states.
The exception is most likely to be in the Northwest, but also over parts of the Northern Plains.
A potential La Niña is one factor behind this outlook.

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Winter will generally be warmer than usual across much of the United States, with a few exceptions, according to an outlook released Thursday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.

The overall picture: Above-average temperatures are expected from the Southwest to the Southern Plains, eastern Great Lakes and East Coast from December 2024 through February 2025.

The exception to this mild winter is expected to be in the Northwest - including Washington, Oregon and Idaho - east into parts of the Northern Plains, where winter temperatures may run slightly below average.

Let's examine each of the next three months in more detail.

December: While our outlook shown below is at least somewhat warmer than usual for most of the country, December may have some colder tricks up its sleeve.

At least a weak La Niña, a periodic cooling of eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean water, is expected, which can have some influence on the overall weather pattern in the U.S.

Past Decembers tended to skew colder in parts of the Midwest and Northeast during weak or moderate La Niñas, not just in the Northwest and Northern Plains, according to Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2.

So this represents a colder risk to the forecast below as winter kicks off.

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January: There isn't much change in our outlook for the first month of 2025.

A warmer January looks to be a safe bet from the Rio Grande Valley to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states.

Once again, the best chance of a colder than usual month will be from the Pacific Northwest to North Dakota and northern Minnesota.

But that doesn't mean there won't be cold outbreaks in this overall milder month.

As AG2's Todd Crawford pointed out, the nation's record warmest winter in 2023-24 still featured a significant cold outbreak in mid-January. In fact, last January was colder than average from the central and Southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley.

(192-hours: Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

February: We may see a sharper east-west or northwest-southeast temperature divide take shape by February.

While much of the East is likely to be warmer than usual, the Northwest is likely to be cold in February, and other locations from the Great Basin to the Northern Plains may also be shivering more than typical during the month.

This general picture is what past weak or moderate La Niñas have often produced in February, according to Crawford.