White Christmas Forecast: Thaw May Erode Snow Cover In Midwest, Northeast

Who Could See A White Christmas This Year?

A white Christmas is likely only for the usual spots in the northern tier of the country and mountain West, with warming temperatures expected to eat away the impressive December snowpack in parts of the Midwest and Northeast.

How it's defined: Meteorologists define a white Christmas as having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning.

It's snow cover, not falling snow, that counts. So, if there's no snow on the ground in the morning, and an inch of snow falls that afternoon or evening, it doesn't count as a white Christmas.

The latest forecast: The map below shows our latest forecast. Areas in the darkest teal contour have the best chance of at least 1 inch of snow cover Christmas morning. Those in the light teal shading have a chance, but it's not a guarantee.

Those in the gray contour, well, perhaps you can wish for one next year.

This forecast may change in the days leading up to Christmas morning. But, we expect this general shape to the Christmas snow cover.

It may be very close to the snow cover last Christmas, which was less expansive than average, with only 26% of the country having snow on the ground, according to NOAA. However, for those lucky enough to be in the city for the holidays, New York's Central Park had its first white Christmas in 15 years in 2024.

(MORE: A Short History Of White Christmas)

What about all the current snow cover: This outlook may have some of you in the Midwest and Northeast scratching your head.

Parts of the mid-Atlantic and I-95 corridor had their first snow of the season last weekend. And it's been a snowy stretch since the weekend after Thanksgiving in a swath of the Midwest from Iowa and the Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes. Springfield, Illinois (18.9 inches) is having its snowiest start to any "winter season" since 1893, with almost as much snowfall as they average an entire season through spring (21.8 inches).

It's also been one of the top 10 coldest first two weeks of December on record for several Midwest and Northeast cities, including Cleveland, Detroit and Scranton, Pennsylvania, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

(MAP: Where Snow Cover Is Right Now)

Warmer trend: First, a general warming trend is kicking off in much of the country that will last into Christmas week. That includes the snow-covered, recently chilly Midwest and Northeast.

Yes, there will be some cold fronts in the days ahead. But these cold air intrusions are expected to be increasingly pinned to the northern tier and won't last as long as recent cold snaps.

So, that's one reason why we expect the extent of snow cover in the Midwest and East to erode by the holiday.

(MAPS: Current Temps | 10-Day Forecast Highs/Lows)

Where snow may fall through Christmas: Given that warmer pattern, we don't expect much snow in the eastern two-thirds of the nation except near the Canadian border and Great Lakes snowbelts.

But it's not all bad news if you love a white Christmas.

We do expect more mountain snow in the West through Christmas, as the map below shows. That's especially the case in the Cascades, Sierra and northern Rockies where recent record warmth and atmospheric rivers of rain have significantly depleted the snowpack. So, if you're spending Christmas on a ski slope in these areas, you may feel like Santa has delivered.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.