Spring, Early Summer Outlook: Stubborn Warmth In The Rockies, But Cooler In The East

Here’s Your April To June Outlook

As we turn the corner into spring, temperatures are expected to be above-average in the Southwest, Rockies and Plains through June, according to the latest update from The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2. Only New England will be near or slightly below average in April, June and July, but the East and Great Lakes could see cooler times, too.

(MORE: Why April, May And June Are The Most Active Months For Tornadoes)

Highlights

• For April, more of the Northern Tier is expected to be cooler than average compared to previous outlooks.

• The Northeast and Southeast are not expected to be as warm as they were in previous outlooks.

• In May, the biggest change is in the Southwest, which is now forecast to see temperatures cooler than average, compared to well above average temperatures as stated in the previous outlook.

• The Midwest will be modestly warmer than average than before.

• In June, the Rockies and coastal Pacific Northwest are expected to be slightly warmer than before .

• In the Central U.S., temperatures in the Great Lakes are expected to be near average while the South-Central U.S. will be slightly warmer than average. Both regions have had minor temperature adjustments.

(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

The Outlooks

The Why

The polar vortex is expected to remain weaker as we get into April after a sudden stratospheric warming in March. This will let cool air continue to flow into the Eastern U.S. while keeping the West warm. There are currently more risks of a cooler April than a warmer one, especially closer to Canada and in the Northeast.

A strengthening El Niño could come into play later in the summer, but signals are mixed by June. Historically, if there is a signal for the summer, warmer temperatures are likely in the Plains. The connections between El Niño and summer weather is more muted than in the cooler months.

Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 9 years. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.