USA National Forecast

Fall, Early Winter Temperature Outlook: Warmer Than Average For Most of U.S, Then Trending Colder in East

At a Glance

La Niña could influence weather conditions this fall and winter in the United States.
Above-average temperatures are likely across a large part of the U.S. this fall.
Temperatures may slide toward below-average as we begin winter in the northern and eastern states.

Fall has officially arrived and temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average for a large part of the nation in the next couple of months. This could then be followed by a colder trend for the eastern and northern United States as winter begins, according to the latest outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

Temperatures overall for the next three months, October through December, are forecast to be above average from the southwestern U.S. to the southern Plains. The East and Pacific Northwest could see temperatures tilt toward slightly below average, particularly in November and December.

NOAA said La Niña conditions are becoming more likely later in the fall and into the winter, and that could influence the weather conditions in the months ahead.

"We have increased forecast temperatures for October and November across the major heating demand centers of the northern U.S. as the La Niña base state continues to emerge heading into the fall season," said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company.

December could be colder than average for parts of the northern and eastern states, but it might not stick around deeper into the winter months, given the expected La Niña influence.

"As is typical in La Niña base state winters, we expect the greatest risk of cold early in the winter in the eastern U.S. with the cold retreating toward the Pacific Northwest as the winter progresses," Crawford says.

October

A broad swath of the country – from the Midwest and northern Plains into the Southwest – is expected to have above-average temperatures overall in October, continuing a trend that has been in place much of September.

Temperatures could be near or just above or below average in the eastern states.

November

The nation's midsection is where above-average warmth is forecast to dominate during November.

In the Northeast, temperatures may begin to push toward below-average overall, a trend that is expected to continue into the start of winter.

Portions of the West Coast may also see temperatures nudge toward colder-than-average levels.

December

For the start of winter in December, the core of warmer-than-average temperatures will be squashed into the Southwest and southern High Plains.

Much of the eastern and northern U.S. may experience temperatures near or slightly below average. As mentioned earlier, the risk for colder-than-average temperatures in the eastern states is expected to come earlier in the winter.