Weekend Storm To Bring Rain, Some Snow To South And East | Weather.com
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Regional Forecasts

This will likely be different than other notorious February storms in one key aspect.

Byweather.com meteorologists
February 12, 2023Updated: February 12, 2023, 4:10 pm ESTPublished: February 12, 2023, 4:10 pm EST

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A storm impacting the Southeast and mid-Atlantic this weekend will lack cold air, which means the best chance for accumulating snow will be in the Appalachians, however some lower elevations areas could see soaking rain mix with snow at times.

W​inter storm warnings have been posted for portions of the southern Appalachians, including Asheville, North Carolina. Areas in blue could see difficult driving conditions and some minor disruptions to power, particularly in the higher elevations.

Here's a breakdown of the forecast timing, how much rain or snow is forecast, and other impacts.

Timing

(​EXPLAINED: How the South Could See Snow)

Sunday: Rain is expected from the Carolinas and Virginia up the mid-Atlantic coast as far north as Philadelphia. Accumulating snow will persist in the Appalachians, while adjacent lower elevation areas might see snow mix with rain from northern Georgia into western portions of North Carolina and Virginia.

Monday: Some showers may linger in parts of southeastern New England and the mid-Atlantic coast. Otherwise, the storm should move away by later in the day.

(​MAPS: U.S. Daily Forecast Rain/Snow)

How Much Rain, Snow?

As mentioned earlier, this storm will have a bigger footprint of rain than snow.

T​he most likely area of accumulating snow will be the central and southern Appalachians, where elevation will make it cold enough. Expect travel over the mountains in these areas to be hazardous from through Sunday night or early Monday morning.

T​he wild card in this forecast is from northern Georgia and eastern Tennessee into far upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina to western and northern Virginia. If temperatures can cool just enough, some wet snow accumulations are possible in these areas early Sunday, especially on grassy and elevated surfaces.

T​he rest of the areas along the East Coast are expected to see rain from this storm.

Snow, Rain Forecast

Other Impacts

Winds

A​s low pressure gains strength, winds are expected to increase along the coast from the northeastern Gulf and much of Georgia to the Virginia Tidewater and Delmarva Peninsula, then spreading up the rest of the Eastern Seaboard to southeastern New England Sunday before trailing off later Monday.

S​ome occasional gusts over 40 mph may lead to sporadic tree limb damage and power outages.

C​oastal Flooding

Winds blowing onshore could lead to at least some minor or moderate coastal flooding at high tide along parts of the East Coast.

This could spread up the Eastern Seaboard from the Southeast Coast to southeastern New England Sunday and Sunday night before winding down later Monday.

W​hy It's Mostly Another Winter Rainmaker

The reason why this system will once again struggle to produce snow is a lack of sufficiently cold air near the East Coast.

(​MAPS: 10-Day U.S. Forecast Highs/Lows)

I​nstead of a fresh supply of cold air from Canada arriving in time for the storm, the "cold" air lingering over the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast will be rather stale, or not that cold.

Eastern storm forecast February 2023

T​he wild card we alluded to earlier is an upper-level pocket of cold air that will accompany the storm – what meteorologists refer to as an upper low.

When that pivots over the Southeast, it could cool the air just enough to allow snow to reach the ground from northern Georgia to the Piedmont of Virginia and the Carolinas, as highlighted earlier, particularly at night when temperatures are usually their coolest.

T​he other factor keeping this system more wet than white is that it is expected to move out to sea Monday, rather than up the coast of New England, where it otherwise would have a tad more cold air to work with over upstate New York or northern New England.

C​heck back frequently for updates to this forecast.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

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