Finally, Rain And Mountain Snow For West

What a strange winter we have seen in the West.

Sustained warmth continued to break daily records across the region. And to top it off, there was hardly any precipitation.

(MORE: Did Winter Forget The West?)

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But I have some good news for all of us. The pattern that lasted through much of the winter is finally breaking down.

And with that comes cooler temperatures and the chance for rain and mountain snow.

First Round: Through Wednesday

The first round of rain and snow is ongoing across California now.

Think of this first round as more of a nuisance than anything else. Rainfall across the lower elevations isn’t expected to be extreme at this point.

But the snowfall is more significant.

Winter weather alerts are in place across the Sierra Nevada and parts of the Rockies until Wednesday afternoon. The highest snowfall totals are in the winter storm warnings, as indicated by the dark blue on the map below.

Next Week Gets Interesting

What's ongoing this week is just foreshadowing what's to come. Models are pointing to significant precipitation beginning Sunday and lasting into next week.

This will likely mean that the California snowpack will see a major boost.

This is good news, as the snowpack in California is running about 50% of where it should be at this time of the year, according to the California Department of Water Resources.

While skiers and snowboarders are rejoicing, those across lower elevations may have some concerns.

With this pattern shift, there is a chance of days of sustained rainfall across California. That also means there is an increasing flood threat for the state, especially across burn scars.

This rainfall could last for days and could bring soaking weather as far south as Los Angeles and San Diego.

(FORECAST: Los Angeles | San Diego)

Why The Shift?

Most of the winter has seen the jet stream pulling north of the West and dipping to the South in the East. This pattern leads to less rainfall and warmer temperatures out West.

The graphic below shows what will happen next week. The jet stream will continue to dip to the south across the West, leading to cooler temperatures and an influx of much-needed rain and snow.

Why The Snowpack Matters

The snowpack across the West isn’t just for skiers and snowboarders. It also helps provide a freshwater source to the West in the drier months.

This is why the lack of snowfall has been so concerning. The West is dependent on snow, which they haven't been seeing.

States like Colorado are even seeing record snowfall deficits this season.

Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master’s degrees from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.