Regional Forecasts

Florida Could See Drought-Relieving Rain This Week, But It Could Be Too Much For Some

Rounds of rainfall are expected for parts of Florida this week. Drought is ongoing, so this rainfall is appreciated. However, some areas may see too much rainfall in a short period of time, so a flood threat isn’t out of the question.

Florida To Finally See Much Needed Rainfall

Florida could see rounds of rain this week, bringing some much needed relief to parts of the drought-stricken state.

However, some places could see too much - too quickly, bringing a flood threat to millions.

Timing Of Rainfall

The first round of rain is expected to ramp up Monday and Tuesday, as a cold front will eventually stall out over the state.

It will get enhanced by an upper level disturbance, bringing rainfall across much of the state.

The main factor of the rainfall for Florida on Tuesday. A stalled frontal boundary, enhanced by an upper disturbance, will bring rainfall that will last into Wednesday.

Wednesday will see a slight lull before another surge of moisture is expected Thursday.

Fortunately, the majority of the rain will wrap up by Friday, so any weekend plans won’t be impacted.

How Much Rainfall?

The heaviest is expected across the eastern coastline of Florida through Friday. Widespread totals over 3 inches are expected, but should slow-moving storms move over the same areas, we could see isolated totals over 5 inches. Cities like Daytona Beach and Melbourne need to be on alert this week.

Some places could see rapid rates: rainfall this quick will not allow the soil to absorb it, so flooding should not be ruled out, especially in urban areas.

Across the southern portion of the state, including Miami, totals of 1-3 inches are expected. The northern part of the state, including Jacksonville, and the Florida Panhandle, including Tallahassee, could see around an inch.

Much Needed Relief

Florida is in one of its worst droughts this century. The state is in the highest extreme drought, or a D3 of 4, in over the last 25 years, according to the US Drought Monitor. Note that in January 2000 and December 2011, there was a higher amount of the exceptional drought, or a D4 of 4.

Tallahassee, Florida, has only seen 6.50 inches of rainfall this year. Their average year to date is more than double this at 14.60 inches. Cities like Jacksonville, Orlando and Daytona Beach are all running well below normal as well.

Current Drought Monitor
(Data: USDA, NDMC, NOAA)

Drought-stricken soil doesn’t handle fast rainfall very well. It needs steady rain to be able to chip away at the drought. Should rain fall too quickly, it just leads to runoff and eventually flooding.

Here’s to hoping that the rainfall is widespread and that rates remain at levels where the soil can actually benefit from the rain.

Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master’s degrees from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.