Remember Asteroid 2024 YR4? Its Chances Of Striking Earth Have Nearly Doubled

Asteroid Now Has 2.3% Chance Of Hitting Earth

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Scientists have reported that Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 2.3% chance of striking Earth in 2032. That’s up from the 1.3% chance that was reported earlier this month.

While that’s a 1 in 43 chance, it’s not a huge cause for alarm. Experts expected the chance to rise as observations were made, but they’re expected to drop dramatically as they learn more about the asteroid’s orbit.

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"We end up with a good understanding of the plane in space that the asteroid is orbiting on, but not exactly where along that plane it will be," asteroid hunter David Rankin told Space.com. "This manifests with uncertainty along a confined line, called the line of variation."

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was originally thought to have a 1 in 83 1.3% chance of colliding with Earth. And while the new numbers may seem striking, there’s still a 97.7% chance the asteroid will miss the planet entirely.

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D​espite the slight increase in risk, the asteroid remains a 3 on the Torino Hazard Scale, which means it merits attention from astronomers.

As Space.com reported, “As you can see, the odds of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 may have almost doubled, but that doesn't mean the chance of it missing Earth has halved.”