Here's How Much Snow, Cold Is Typically Left After Groundhog Day – No Matter What Punxsutawney Phil Says

How Much Snow Is Left After Groundhog Day?

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Punxsutawney Phil's verdict on Groundhog Day can feel like a turning point toward spring, but no matter what he says, there's typically plenty more snow and cold to come for many cities across the United States.

The big picture on how much snow, on average, is still to come after Groundhog Day: Most cities in the northern and western U.S. average 10 or more inches of snow from Feb. 3 through spring, as shown in the map below from the Midwest Regional Climate Center, which is based on NOAA's 30-year average from 1991 through 2020.

We dug even deeper into the data to lay out the specifics below on how much snow and cold is left for several cities across the U.S.

About 25% to 55% of the average season's snow falls after Groundhog Day in the Northeast, Midwest, West and Alaska: Seventeen of the 25 cities we examined still picked up another foot or more of snow after Feb. 2, including Chicago, Detroit, New York City, Pittsburgh and Salt Lake City.

Some cities average another 2 or more feet of snow after Groundhog Day: Anchorage, Billings, Buffalo and Cleveland are some of the cities in this club that usually have much more shoveling to come.

Incredibly, in both Marquette, Michigan, and Tahoe City, in California's Sierra Nevada, another 82 to 90 inches of snow is typical after Feb. 2.

This is mainly due to the propensity for major Northeast snowstorms in February and March. The last couple of winters didn't deliver such a storm, so it's not a guarantee.

Even if the snow finally shuts off for the season, spring cold snaps can still be frustrating: Only four of the cities we examined typically see their last freeze of the season in March.

Otherwise, most cities outside the Mountain West or not near the U.S.-Canadian border have to go into April to see their last freeze.

This translates to about four weeks' worth of days after Groundhog Day of morning lows at least dipping to the freezing mark in New York, Philadelphia and St. Louis; at least 45 such freezing mornings in Chicago and Pittsburgh; 50 such days in Detroit and Spokane; and at least 60 freezing mornings after Feb. 2 in Denver, Fargo and Flagstaff.

In some parts of the far northern U.S. or Mountain West, a freeze is possible much of the spring.

So, even a pessimistic "six more weeks of winter" forecast from your local groundhog doesn't typically capture the propensity for winter weather to lag into spring.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.​