There's A Peak Time For Major Northeast Winter Storms

The Day The Temperature Rose 103 Degrees

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M​ajor Northeast snowstorms have historically been more frequent during a particular period in winter, according to more than six decades of analysis.

A scale ranks Northeast winter storms based on their significance: The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale, or NESIS, ranks the impact of Northeast winter storms from Category 1 to 5. This ranking is determined by snowfall amounts and the population affected. It was developed in 2004 by Paul Kocin and Dr. Louis Uccellini.

T​he winter has a 40-plus-day sweet spot for big Northeast snowstorms: A​s the graph below shows, the 36 Northeast snowstorms that were Category 3 or higher on the NESIS scale since 1956 have happened from December through early March, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.

Dividing those storms into halves of months reveals there's a distinct peak in their frequency beginning in late January and lasting through mid-February.

A​verage snowfall illustrates the season's peak, too: This peak in major Northeast snowstorms from late January through February also shows up in average snowfall data for the Boston-to-Washington corridor.

In a typical season, New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., see at least a small majority of their seasonal snow from late January through February.

Here are a few examples pointing out this Category 3 or higher Northeast snowstorm climatological bull's-eye this century:

• Late January 2016 (Category 4): Winter Storm Jonas was a record snowstorm for New York City, Baltimore and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
• Early February 2013 (Category 3): Winter Storm Nemo was a record snowstorm for Portland, Maine, and buried much of New England in multiple feet of snow.
• Early February 2010 (Category 3): Snowmageddons I and II hammered the mid-Atlantic states just days apart. Hundreds of thousands were without power and some roofs collapsed.
• February 2003 (Category 4): Presidents' Day II storm produced 4-inch-per-hour snowfall rates in Philadelphia; Reagan National, Baltimore-Washington, Philadelphia and LaGuardia airports closed; and it was a record Boston snowstorm.

Here are a few other memorable late-January and February major Northeast snowstorms before the 2000s:

• February 1983 (Category 4): The "Megalopolitan Snowstorm" crippled the entire Northeast corridor with 2- to 5-inch-per-hour snow rates, accompanied by lightning.
• February 1979 (Category 3): The original Presidents' Day snowstorm hammered Washington, D.C., and the mid-Atlantic.
• February 1978 (Category 3): The Northeast's Blizzard of '78 crippled southern New England, in particular.
• February 1969 (Category 3): A large swath of 20-inch-plus snow buried eastern and northern New England.

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