Newest Study On Climate Change And Hurricane Melissa: How Much Are They Connected?

Climate Change Helped Fuel Hurricane Melissa

Climate studies always make my eyes glaze over, and I know I am not alone. But, we have to take climate studies more seriously as we continue to see more natural disasters like Hurricane Melissa.

A new study came out from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) that explains the power of Melissa and how the storm was enhanced by climate change.

This piece does a great job of giving some specific numbers to Melissa, which I will break down below.

The Latest Study

The WWA compared the likelihood of Melissa's impacts in today's climate – one that is 1.3°C warmer because of humans – to a cooler simulated pre-industrial climate.

All of their results are based on this statistic, so I don't have to repeat the caveat a bunch, and we can stay in the meat and potatoes.

Starting with wind speeds, the WWA deduced that wind speeds are about 7% higher or about 11 mph higher today. This increase in winds leads to an exponential increase in damage. They also saw an increase in the frequency of powerful storms like Melissa by 5.

That may not seem like a lot, but we are talking about sustained winds, so you can really see ramp-ups in damage. And with the increased frequency, more storms like this are expected.

The WWA reports that a deluge of rainfall over a 5-day period, much like Melissa, is about 30% more intense and is twice as likely today versus decades ago.

For eastern Cuba, the frequency was even higher at a 50% increase in intense rainfall.

Long story short, it will rain more with powerful storms like Melissa. Now some of you may be thinking this is super obvious, but getting case-by-case results for storms will help to show the change and can help open people's eyes to what a warmer world is doing.

The WWA also performed a study on the powerful eyewall of Hurricane Melissa and discovered that the rainfall rate in the eyewall of a storm like Melissa’s was 43% more likely and 16% more intense due to climate change.

Eyewalls are already some of the hardest hit areas, so this information isn't good news going forward.

Ocean Influence

Oceans have become a primary contributor to more powerful storms.

So why are they so warm? Hopefully below will shed some light on this.

Think of the ocean as a heat-absorbing vacuum as our oceans absorbed roughly 93% of the excess heat that has been fueled by carbon emissions. Our oceans have a higher ability to retain heat compared to our atmosphere.

In fact, every tenth of a degree of ocean warming increases the risks of stronger storms and higher sea levels.

Rising sea levels due to climate change will also amplify storm surge potential as storms come onshore, putting entire coastal communities in harm's way.

Doubling Wind Speeds In 24 Hours

After spending days as a tropical storm, capped by unfavorable atmospheric conditions, the wind shear limiting Melissa weakened.

Melissa went from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in 24 hours, further strengthening to a Category 5 hurricane on October 27, 2025.

Hurricane Melissa’s slow movement brought major concerns to Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba prior to the storms expected turn towards Jamaica.

According to WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry, only four other Atlantic hurricanes spent as much time or more at Category 5 intensity.

Devastation to the Caribbean

Melissa made landfall in Jamaica at Category 5 intensity at 1 p.m. EDT on Oct. 28, which was Jamaica’s most intense hurricane landfall on record. It also tied for the strongest Atlantic Basin landfall on record with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and 2019’s Hurricane Dorian.

With a landfall this strong, devastation was guaranteed.

The assessment of the damage will take weeks or months to complete, but pictures and video show widespread destruction of homes and buildings.

Also a concern is disruption to infrastructure as roads remain washed out, water systems are devastated, power outages are ongoing, communities are isolated and communication remains impaired.

The Jamaican Government reports that at least 28 people have been confirmed dead, while another 31 were reported in Haiti and 2 in the Dominican Republic.

Jamaica’s agriculture was also ravaged by Melissa, with widespread crop failure and around 25,000 people displaced and seeking emergency shelter. BBC reported that around 6,000 were still in shelters a week after the storm moved through. And these areas are coming off of seeing impacts from Hurricane Beryl just last year.

(For More: Hurricane Beryl Recap)

Cuba saw 241 communities still without any form of communication after Melissa hit the nation as a major hurricane early morning on October 29. Reuters reported that more than 140,000 people.

Losses of communication and destruction of weather systems means that total rainfall and damage will be very difficult to finalize.

A Silver Lining?

Probably the only silver lining to Melissa’s slow movement is that Cuba and Jamaica had plenty of time to prepare for this storm.

Cuba saw the evacuation of over 735,000 people across the coasts and low-lying areas. For Jamaica, they were able to open 881 emergency shelters and were able to prepare emergency supplies, airport closures and divert cruise ships.

More Studies Required

The intensity of this storm and how fast it grew in strength shows that there is only so much that governments can do with reguard to adaptation.

Eastern Caribbean nations will continue to undergo evaluations and hazards to provide a clear picture of the damage and how to continue to try to offset climate's impacts with reguard to future disasters.

World Weather Attribution contributed to the report.