Weather Explainers

Ask A Met: Will El Niño End The Drought Out West?

Each week, our meteorologists answer a question from readers.

For this column, I usually take a question from readers for our meteorologists to answer. But this week, I just couldn't help myself. Lately I've been keeping an eye on the drought conditions in the West and wondering what might change that. So, I asked, "Will El Niño do anything to change the drought conditions in the Western states?"

Meteorologist Jonathan Erdman: First, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, El Niño isn’t a given.

In their February outlook, they said there's a 50-60% chance of one forming later this summer into fall. Part of the challenge is model forecasts made in spring for El Niño and La Niña are often inaccurate.

Let’s say El Niño does form.

That may be good news for the Southwest U.S. drought. In general, winters during a moderate or stronger El Niño tend to be wetter and snowier in the high country of the Southwest, parts of California and the southern Rockies.

Typical impacts during a stronger El Niño from December through February in North America.
(NOAA)

But it’s not good news elsewhere in the drought-stricken West. Moderate to strong El Niño winters tend to be warmer and less snowy in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.

However, El Niño is only one of the influences on the weather pattern. Therefore, not every El Niño fall and winter looks the same across the country.

Do you have a question to ask the meteorologists at Weather.com? Write to us or drop a weather-related question in the comments below. We’ll pick a new one each week from readers to answer.