Hurricane Season Forecast Update: 10 More Named Atlantic Storms Expected

Five named storms have already formed in 2016: Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle and Earl. Two of those named storms, Alex and Earl, were hurricanes.

The total seasonal forecast from CSU is for 15 named storms,  including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The Weather Company, an IBM Business, updated its seasonal forecast in July. A total of 15 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes are forecast, the outlook said.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, who heads the CSU forecast, said there is still uncertainty about how the rest of the season will play out. However, the CSU forecast still expects the season to be near historical averages, overall.

The 30-year average is 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

One positive factor for tropical development is the "relatively favorable upper-level wind conditions during July," Klotzbach said. If the weaker winds aloft compared to average we saw in July persist in the months ahead, this could aid in the development and intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes.

Additionally, somewhat above-average water temperatures are present in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Warm water temperatures like this are another ingredient needed to help develop storms.

Negative factors include relatively cooler waters in the far north Atlantic and subtropical eastern Atlantic. The state of the atmosphere was also more stable than average during July. Unstable conditions are needed for rising air to help fuel the development of showers and thunderstorms needed to develop and maintain tropical storms.

Hurricane Forecast Takeaway: Remain Prepared

There is no strong correlation between the number of storms or hurricanes and U.S. landfalls in any given season. So far this season, Bonnie and Colin have made a U.S. landfall in South Carolina and Florida, respectively.

One or more of the 10 additional named storms forecast to develop this season could hit the U.S., or none at all. Therefore, residents of the coastal United States should prepare each year no matter the forecast.

A couple of classic examples of why you need to be prepared occurred in 1992 and 1983.

The 1992 season produced only six named storms and one subtropical storm. However, one of those named storms was Hurricane Andrew, which devastated South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane.

In contrast, the 2010 season was active. There were 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes that formed in the Atlantic Basin.

Despite the large number of storms that year, not a single hurricane and only one tropical storm made landfall in the United States.

In other words, a season can deliver many storms, but have little impact, or deliver few storms and have one or more hitting the U.S. coast with major impact.

The U.S. averages between 1 to 2 hurricane landfalls each season, according to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division statistics. However, the number of U.S. landfalls has been much below average in the last decade.

The current 10-year running total (2006-2015) of U.S. hurricane landfalls is seven, according to Alex Lamers, a meteorologist with The National Weather Service. This is a record low for any 10-year period dating to 1850, and is considerably lower than the average of 17 per 10-year period dating to 1850, Lamers added.

(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Of course, the record-breaking 2005 hurricane season is now outside that current 10-year running total. 2005 was also the last season we saw a Category 3 or stronger hurricane (Wilma) hit the U.S., the longest such streak dating to the mid-19th century.

(MORE: Florida Hurricane Drought Continues)

Bottom line: The U.S. is due for another hurricane strike sooner rather than later, but it's impossible to know if that will occur this season. Keep in mind, however, that even a weak tropical storm hitting the U.S. can cause major impacts, particularly if it moves slowly, resulting in flooding rainfall.

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