2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Be One Of Most Active On Record, CSU Outlook Says

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be one of the most active on record, according to a just-released outlook.

A sobering outlook: C​olorado State University's tropical meteorology project team is forecasting 23 storms, 11 of which will become hurricanes and five of which will reach Category 3 status or stronger, in their first outlook for 2024 released Thursday.

T​hat is well above the 30-year average tally for both hurricanes and storms, and also markedly above the tally of 20 storms, seven hurricanes and three Cat 3-plus hurricanes in 2023.

Their most active April forecast: This is the highest number of storms and hurricanes the CSU team has forecast in any of their April hurricane season outlooks since 1996.

P​reviously, they forecast 19 storms in April 2022 and nine hurricanes in multiple April outlooks, including 2022, 2013, 2011, 2007, 2006 and 1999.

There are two primary reasons behind this turbocharged outlook.

1. T​he Atlantic's record warmth: Hurricane season generally begins when water temperatures warm to around 80 degrees, which usually occurs between June 1 and Nov. 30. If other factors are equal, the deeper and warmer ocean water is, the stronger a hurricane can become.

March marked the 12th month in a row that water temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean were record warm for that time of year, according to University of Miami tropical scientist Brian McNoldy. As you can see in the map below, this unusual spring warmth stretches from the Gulf of Mexico to Africa.

McNoldy also noted that the strip of the ocean from the Lesser Antilles to West Africa, where stronger hurricanes can form, has as much heat content in early April as is typical for early July.

Since Atlantic Basin water temperatures in early spring correlate to a hurricane season's activity, this is one ominous sign.

2. E​l Niño is likely to become La Niña: Unlike last year, one factor that tends to keep the lid on hurricanes will be vanishing this season.

T​he current El Niño was described as "skin deep" by Phil Klotzbach, head of the CSU forecast team, in a presentation at the National Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre Island, Texas, Thursday.

N​OAA's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting the current El Niño to dissipate and become La Niña by the heart of this hurricane season.

This matters because it's one of the strongest influences on hurricane season activity.

I​n general, La Niña Atlantic hurricane seasons have less wind shear that can otherwise rip storms apart, and rising, unstable air that is more conducive for thunderstorms, the building blocks of tropical storms and hurricanes.

S​o this means instead of El Niño acting as a gentle brake on hurricane season, La Niña could instead step on the gas pedal.

W​hat about potential impacts? A​s we discussed in depth in a previous piece, that can not only mean more storms and hurricanes, but a bigger threat, especially in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea.

I​n 2023, the record-warm Atlantic Ocean water generated 20 storms, seven hurricanes and three that reached Cat 3 or stronger intensity, despite El Niño.

B​ut the majority of them curled away from the U.S., with the exception of Hurricane Idalia.

Prepare the same every season: What these outlooks cannot tell you is whether or not your area will get struck this season and when that might happen.

A season with fewer storms or hurricanes can still deliver the one storm that makes a season destructive or devastating.

Y​ou can also see the opposite case.

I​n 2010, we also transitioned from a strong El Niño to La Niña by the time hurricane season arrived. A​nd that season was indeed very active, with 19 storms, 12 hurricanes and five Category 3-plus hurricanes.

B​ut as you can see in the track map below, all 12 hurricanes missed the mainland U.S. Hurricane Earl did pass near enough to produce storm surge flooding in North Carolina's Outer Banks and downed trees and power lines in eastern Massachusetts.

S​o, this ominous forecast doesn't necessarily guarantee a high-impact season. It simply means the odds are higher.

"​We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean," the CSU team wrote in their outlook.

It also doesn't take a hurricane to be impactful, especially regarding rainfall flooding.

P​repare for every hurricane season in case this is the one your area takes a hit. Information about hurricane preparedness can be found here.

W​e could "run out of names": This outlook of 23 storms implies we could exhaust the 2024 list of hurricane names.

A​ committee of the World Meteorological Organization maintains lists of names for tropical cyclones around the world. Each year, there's a list of 21 Atlantic Basin names that repeat every six years, unless one or more of them is so deadly and/or destructive that its name is retired.

S​o if we use up all names through "William" this year, a supplemental names list will be tapped, beginning with "Adria."

O​nly two other Atlantic hurricane seasons in which names have been used have pushed beyond 21 storms.

In 2005 (28 storms) and 2020 (30), an alternate list of Greek alphabet letters was used for additional storms beyond the 21st storm. But use of the Greek alphabet was retired in 2021 due to confusion among Greek letters that sound similar (such as Zeta, Eta, Theta), especially if they were active at the same time.

M​ORE ON WEATHER.COM:

-​ What Is La Niña?

-​ From Strong El Niño To La Niña: How Past Seasons Have Turned Out

-​ 2023 Hurricane Season Recap

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. His lifelong love of meteorology began with a close encounter with a tornado as a child in Wisconsin. He completed a Bachelor's degree in physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, then a Master's degree working with dual-polarization radar and lightning data at Colorado State University. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on X (formerly Twitter), Threads, Facebook and Bluesky.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives.