New Outlook: Atlantic Hurricane Season To Be Busier Than Previously Expected

Confidence continues to increase that a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season is ahead of us.

The new outlook released Thursday calls for an increase of one named storm and one hurricane from the previous outlook by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.

Big numbers rise as we near the start of hurricane season: 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes are expected this season, according to the new outlook. This is the highest number of hurricanes anticipated in any outlook issued by The Weather Company.

If this comes to fruition, we will use all of the names of the primary list, plus four additional names on the new supplemental list that was recently added.

Past seasons may give us some clue to the season ahead: We chose the five most recent hurricane seasons that look closest to what we expect in 2024 based on El Niño - Southern Oscillation, looking for years that went from El Niño to La Niña in a similar manner to 2024. Those seasons are 1973, 1983, 1998, 2010 and 2016.

These seasons yielded an average of 16 named storms, nearly 10 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 162.9. ACE is a measure that meteorologists use to measure how active a season is, and it incorporates how strong storms get and how long they last. An ACE of 160 is considered a hyperactive season.

T​hese seasons also brought a substantial jump in the number of tracks that brought more tropical storms and hurricanes closer to the western Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

(​MORE: How Past Hurricanes Seasons Have Turned Out After Change To La Niña)

More hurricane landfalls likely this season, too: With the number of expected hurricanes climbing, you might think that hurricane landfalls would climb - and you’d be correct, but only partially for the right reasons.

A pattern called the positive North Atlantic Oscillation is expected across the Atlantic. Put simply, the high pressure system that lingers near Bermuda and the Azores in the heart of hurricane season will be stronger. This may steer more systems west while also trapping them in the tropics with no safe escape route.

Forecasters expect the number of hurricane landfalls to be twice as high as is typical for a season.

While El Niño fades, temperatures rise in the Atlantic: These two patterns continue to amplify the threat of an extremely busy hurricane season.

“Insanely warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures to drive hyperactive season as La Niña develops again, with enhanced risk of Gulf of Mexico and Florida landfalls,” says Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2 and author of the outlook.

Water temperatures remain near or above record warm levels across the Main Development Region (MDR) and in the Caribbean, which as we saw in 2023 can be by itself drive a very active hurricane season.

The chance of La Niña now hovers near 80% for the peak of hurricane season (August - September - October). There should not be a shearing lid or sinking air over storms this season. La Niña typically allows for more tropical storms and hurricanes.

(MORE: The ENSO latest outlook)

The combination of the warm water and lack of El Niño will lead to a well above-average activity level this hurricane season, but the question remains, how much above average? We will see.

Jonathan Belles has been a graphics meteorologist and writer for weather.com for 8 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.