Tropical Storm Rafael Moving Through Caribbean, Tropical Storm Watch For Florida Keys

Rafael is moving through the western Caribbean and Greater Antilles. Rafael is forecast to intensify into a hurricane on Tuesday before entering the Gulf of Mexico, where conditions will trend less conducive for the system to hold that intensity later this week.

H​ere's the latest status on this system: Tropical Storm Rafael is moving south of Kingston, Jamaica, and is tracking north-northwest at 12 mph.

The storm intensified to a tropical storm Monday afternoon, but minimal further intensification is expected by Monday morning.

H​ere's the latest intensify and track forecast: Rafael is currently expected to reach hurricane strength before it reaches Cuba on Wednesday.

T​hereafter, Rafael is predicted to undergo some level of weakening in the Gulf of Mexico because it will likely encounter increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds, some dry air and cooling Gulf of Mexico waters.

W​hat we know about future Rafael's possible impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast: A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. But overall, the forecast remains highly uncertain.

T​hat said, Rafael could at least help enhance rainfall in Florida and other parts of the Southeast U.S. beginning Wednesday by pulling tropical moisture northward. It's too early to nail down any other specifics.

What to expect in the Caribbean from this system: Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding and mudslides from southern Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and parts of western and southern Cuba early this week.

A h​urricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This means that hurricane conditions (74-mph winds or higher) are expected. Hurricane force winds could arrive in the Cayman Islands as soon as Tuesday afternoon.

A​ tropical storm warning has been issued for Jamaica, which means that tropical storm conditions (39- to 73-mph winds) are expected. These conditions are forecast to arrive in Jamaica this evening.

A​ hurricane watch is also now in effect for central Cuba. That means hurricane conditions are possible there in the next 48 hours. Tropical storms watches extend east from there into central Cuba.

S​ome storm surge flooding is possible in Jamaica, Cayman Islands and western Cuba, as well.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.