Watching Southern Gulf For Possible Development

The tropics are crawling to life on either side of Mexico, and we should get at least one named storm in the Pacific by next week.

Here's the big picture:

- What's happening: A large pocket of moisture is pushing westward through the Caribbean and Pacific, and we are likely to see some tropical development through this weekend and into the first week of July. Direct impacts by a tropical system in the United States are not expected, but some moisture could reach the Southwest next week. We have two systems to watch:

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- Invest 91L has a lower chance of development in the Bay of Campeche. This system is represented by the northern X on the map below.

(MORE: What is an Invest?)

- Invest 95E has an increasing chance of development several hundred miles south of southeastern Mexico. This system is represented by the red X on the map below.

Here's a deeper look at each system:

Newly-tagged Invest 91L could bring heavy rain to Central America and eastern Mexico. This tropical wave is producing thunderstorms over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, the Gulf and Bay of Campeche, but doesn't have a long runway before it comes ashore on eastern mainland Mexico. It is expected to run aground early next week, but some modest development is possible before then. If something forms, the name is "Barry."

(MORE: Here's What We Typically See In The Tropics In July)

Pacific system could become Tropical Storm Flossie by early next week, then bring moisture to the Southwest. Slow development of this system is likely as it moves northwestward through the Pacific parallel to the Mexican coastline over the next few days. Computer models suggest that this may not be a strong system, but 95E's disorganized state might be hampering model accuracy. Tropical moisture from this storm could be sucked northward as a burst of monsoonal moisture into the Southwestern US before July 4th.

Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 9 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.