Erin Strengthens; Likely Will Be A Hurricane Today

Erin is expected to reach major hurricane intensity this weekend as it tracks just north of the Caribbean islands, where it could bring rain, gusty winds and high surf.

Erin's longer-term future through next week is still somewhat uncertain, so interests across the Caribbean, the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda should continue to monitor the forecast.

(MORE: Erin Maps Tracker - Spaghetti Models, Forecasts, More)

Weather in your inbox

Forecast Location

Sign Up

By signing up you agree to the Terms & Privacy Policy. Unsubscribe at any time.

Watches And Warnings

Tropical storm watches have been issued for Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius and Sint Maarten. This means that winds of 40+ mph are possible within 48 hours.

Path, Intensity Forecast

Tropical Storm Erin is located more than 500 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Erin is forecast to gain latitude as it turns toward the west-northwest. The forecast track has been trending westward and southward over the last few days. This means that the chance of impacts is increasing for the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

This path will take Erin toward progressively warmer waters, which, in tandem with low wind shear, should allow the storm to become a hurricane by Friday.

Erin could become a major hurricane later this weekend as it makes a close brush, or travels just north of the Caribbean islands.

By early next week, Erin could potentially reach Category 4 strength, according to the latest from the National Hurricane Center.

Next week: Erin is expected to pass between North Carolina and Bermuda. Exactly where this happens remains uncertain, but Erin will eventually turn northeastward to the north of Bermuda.

Potential Impacts

-Caribbean: The core of Erin is expected to pass just north of the northeast Caribbean islands, but some impacts are expected this weekend from Puerto Rico to Martinique.

In addition to high surf and dangerous rip currents, bands of heavy rain containing gusty winds could impact the northern Leeward Islands Friday night into this weekend. That includes the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

-Bermuda, U.S. East Coast: This weekend into early next week is when this system will begin to turn more to the north between a developing break in high pressure. Where that turn occurs between the area of high pressure over the eastern U.S. and another one east of Bermuda is still uncertain and will determine what, if any, land areas might see impacts next week.

The probability of a landfall from Erin along the U.S. East Coast is low at this time. However, interests along the East Coast should continue to monitor this system for possible changes. Erin will generate high surf and dangerous rip currents along the U.S. East Coast next week, no matter where it tracks.

Bermuda should also continue to follow Erin's forecast closely since its eventual turn toward the north and northeast might take it close to the archipelago next week.

Check back to weather.com and The Weather Channel app in the coming days for updates as the forecast comes more into focus.

Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world's biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades.