Odds Increasing In Atlantic; 2 Areas To Watch

The forecast for Imelda late last week had us on the edge of our seats at weather.com — watching the latest forecast models and updates from the National Hurricane Center.

But by the end of the weekend, the forecast had taken a hard turn, literally.

So, what happened with Imelda’s predicted track? Let’s break it down.

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Imelda’s Forecast Changes

Questions regarding Imelda’s speed and the role Humberto would play left the forecast dripping with uncertainty from the beginning.

Late last week, there were two scenarios:

• Faster-moving Imelda, Southeast landfall: If Imelda moved quickly northward, the upper-level pattern would steer the storm directly into the Southeast. This scenario brought threats of heavy rainfall, significant flooding and destructive winds for the coast.
• Slower-moving Imelda, seaward track: If Imelda moved more slowly, Humberto would have time to strengthen, break down the upper-level ridge to its east and essentially pull Imelda out to sea along with it.

Many models favored the first scenario at the end of last week, but as we see now, the second scenario is what is prevailing — causing that sharp right turn in the forecast.

(MORE: The Latest Forecast For Imelda and Humberto)

As Imelda took its sweet time moving northward, Humberto became the hero in this story.

As it churned farther out in the Atlantic, Humberto rapidly intensified Friday before becoming the second Category 5 hurricane of the 2025 season on Saturday.

This hurricane was able to break down the Bermuda high, which would have otherwise steered Imelda northward. This provided a pathway out for the notorious ‘I’ storm and spared the Southeast Coast from potentially devastating impacts.

(MORE: Our Map Tracker Page)

Why This Is Important

This is a stark reminder why it’s important to check for forecast updates frequently.

In just 48 hours, the cone for Imelda had completely changed direction.

Although, this time, the dramatic change in the forecast was a positive one, that won’t always be the case.

So, remember to monitor the forecast closely for any changes as we continue through the second half of hurricane season.

Caitlin Kaiser graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology with both an undergraduate and graduate degree in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences before starting her career as a digital meteorologist with weather.com.