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Tropical Development Possible In 2 Areas; Florida Soaking, Regardless | Weather.com

National Hurricane Center Monitoring 2 Areas For Tropical Development; Florida Soaking Ahead, Regardless

Hurricane season may not take much of a rest after Imelda. Here's the very latest on two areas we're watching in the Atlantic, including a Gulf soaking.

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Sunshine State? More Like Soggy State

Tropical development is possible in two areas of the Atlantic Basin over the next several days, including the Gulf near Florida, following the recent pair of hurricanes, Humberto and Imelda.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring areas in the eastern Atlantic and also near the Sunshine State, as shown in the map below.

Here's what you need to know about each.

(MORE: How Hurricane Season Usually Changes In October)

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Possible NHC Development
(The possible areas of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook are shown by polygons, color-coded by the chance of development over the next seven days. An "X" indicates the location of a current disturbance. )

Florida, Gulf

- Weak low pressure could form near the northwestern Bahamas or Florida by this weekend.

- As the map above shows, this weak low could then move northwestward into the Gulf.

- The Gulf is currently dominated by both strong wind shear and dry air. Those two factors working against tropical development may lessen over the next few days.

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- For now, the main concern is the threat of locally flooding rainfall the next several days in parts of eastern Florida and parts of the northern Gulf Coast, as the map below shows.

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Rainfall Forecast
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall. Higher amounts may occur where bands of rain stall over a period of a few hours. )

Eastern Atlantic

- The other area we're watching is between the Lesser Antilles and Africa.

- A disturbance known as a tropical wave is expected to move westward off the African coast into the eastern Atlantic Ocean by Friday.

- That could combine with another system and allow development to happen sometime next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

- This system could be near the Lesser Antilles next Thursday, Oct. 9, either as an undeveloped tropical wave, a depression or tropical storm.

- It's far too soon to determine its future beyond that. Most long-range computer models suggest another northward curl of this system is possible, assuming it develops at all. But where and when that northward curl will happen will be important.

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Current Sea-Surface Temperatures, Satellite And Possible NHC Development Area

The next Atlantic tropical storm be named "Jerry." Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on these areas, and other happenings in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.

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