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Tropical Storm Melissa May Form In The Caribbean This Week | Weather.com

Tropical Storm Melissa May Form In The Caribbean This Week; Its Future Is Uncertain

Melissa will likely form in the Caribbean. Beyond that, there are several scenarios regarding its future into next week. Here's what could happen.

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Invest 98L More And More Likely To Develop

Tropical Storm Melissa may develop in the Caribbean Sea sometime later this week, but its future beyond that is unclear, with several scenarios possible.

As we head into late October, the tropics aren’t ready to settle down quite yet.

The National Hurricane Center is watching an area in the Caribbean Sea, that will likely develop into a tropical depression or storm in the next day or two. And this is a long-lived saga we'll likely deal with well into next week.

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Possible NHC Development Area(s)
(The possible area(s) of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center outlook are shown by polygons, color-coded by the chance of development over the next seven days. An "X" indicates the location of a current disturbance. )

Development In Caribbean

A disturbance known as a tropical wave is currently moving westward across the eastern Caribbean Sea. It's being referred to by the National Hurricane Center as Invest 98L, a way for the NHC to identify systems that might develop, allowing for higher-resolution computer models to be run on the disturbance.

(MORE: What Is An Invest?)

There is a large area of showers and thunderstorms with this disturbance, with winds from 30 to 40 mph along its north and east flanks.

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But the tropical wave's quick forward speed and winds above the surface are creating wind shear that's keeping the system from developing quicker at the moment.

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Wind Shear, Potential NHC Development Area
(Areas of strong wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with height, are shown in purple. High wind shear is hostile to mature tropical cyclones and those trying to develop. The area of possible development is also shown, as in the previous map. )

However, later this week, the disturbance should slow down, and that's when tropical development becomes more likely.

With the most abundant supply of warm, deep water anywhere in the Atlantic Basin potentially serving as fuel, let's take a look at the potential scenarios for "future Melissa".

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Ocean Heat Content
(This map shows areas of not only warm water, but warm, deep water that is one ingredient to fuel developing and active tropical cyclones. )

Possible Scenarios

For now, there appear to be three potential outcomes for what we expect to be Melissa:

  • Quick northward turn: The system could develop into a named storm sooner over the central Caribbean Sea, curl northward and crawl over Hispaniola, before abruptly moving northeastward out to sea.
  • Westward track into Central America: Rather than curve northward, Melissa may continue tracking westward over the bathtub-like waters into Central America.
  • Later northward curve, potential U.S. impacts: A third scenario is that Melissa takes a later northward curve early-mid next week. This could potentially bring impacts to Cuba, the Bahamas and the U.S. later next week.

It's too soon to tell which of these scenarios will occur. This has the potential to be a long, drawn-out affair lasting well into next week.

Check back with us at weather.com for the latest forecast updates.

Caitlin Kaiser graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology with both an undergraduate and graduate degree in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences before starting her career as a digital meteorologist with weather.com.

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