Tropical Storm Melissa Forms; Caribbean Flooding Is Worry As Watches Go Up For Haiti, Jamaica

Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast To Strengthen

Tropical Storm Melissa has formed, prompting new watches in the Caribbean. While its forecast is still unclear, torrential rainfall, high winds and storm surge flooding are threats wherever it tracks into next week.

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Number 13

The National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Melissa formed late Tuesday morning, the 13th storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

That's roughly on par with the average date of the 13th storm from 1991 through 2020 (Oct. 25), according to the NHC. It's also one storm shy of the average number of storms for an entire season, 14.

Where It Is Now

Melissa's center is located in the central Caribbean Sea between the coasts of Colombia and Hispaniola.

It's moving generally toward the west-northwest.

Some showers and thundershowers are moving across the ABC Islands — Aruba, Bonaire, Curaçao — with soaking rainfall and gusty winds. Some showers are also moving toward the southern coast of Hispaniola.

Alerts

The map below shows the latest watches and warnings in effect for Melissa.

For now, a hurricane watch is in effect for southern Haiti, including Port-au-Prince. This means hurricane force winds are possible in this area, and tropical storm force winds could move in within 48 hours.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for Jamaica. This means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours.

Possible Forecast Track Scenarios

• Quicker northward curve: Melissa could strengthen and curl northward sooner over Haiti or the Dominican Republic, before abruptly moving northeastward out into the central Atlantic Ocean by early next week. This scenario is still possible.

• Stall, then later northward curve: A second scenario is that Melissa wanders farther west and slows down over the western Caribbean Sea, then takes a later northeastward curl next week. This could potentially bring impacts to Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba and the Bahamas. The chance of this scenario is increasing.

It's too soon to determine which of these scenarios will occur. This has the potential to be a long, drawn-out affair lasting well into next week.

For now, the threat to the mainland U.S. from Melissa — primarily to South Florida — appears to be very low, but not zero.

How Strong?

The most abundant supply of warm, deep water anywhere in the Atlantic Basin is in the western Caribbean Sea, potentially serving as fuel for any tropical storm or hurricane.

If Melissa remains far from any land influence and persists over this warm pool of water, and doesn't have to contend too long with either wind shear or dry air, Melissa could eventually become a formidably strong hurricane.

Flood Danger, Regardless

Regardless of Melissa's wind intensity, its potential to slow down means some parts of the Caribbean could pick up heavy rainfall for several days from later this week into next week.

Parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba could pick up over 10 inches of total rainfall through next week. Depending on the track, some bands or clusters of locally heavy rain area also possible in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Turks and Caicos, and parts of the Bahamas.

That heavy rainfall is likely to trigger life-threatening flash flooding and landslides in hilly and mountainous terrain.

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Check back with us at weather.com for the latest forecast updates.

Caitlin Kaiser graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology with both an undergraduate and graduate degree in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences before starting her career as a digital meteorologist with weather.com.