Tropical Storm Melissa Prompts Hurricane Watch In Jamaica; Forecast To Rapidly Intensify In Caribbean

Melissa Expected To Be Major Hurricane

Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to become a major hurricane by early next week, prompting new watches and warnings. But its slow crawl over the Caribbean Sea makes it a rainfall flood danger and days of tropical storm or hurricane conditions for parts of Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba.

(MORE MAPS: Melissa Map Tracker)

Where It Is Now

Melissa's center is located in the central Caribbean Sea, several hundred miles south of Haiti and Jamaica. And it is still crawling forward at just 2 mph.

Some outer bands of showers and thundershowers are streaming northward across parts of Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico with soaking rainfall and gusty winds.

Alerts

The map below shows the latest watches and warnings in effect for Melissa.

A hurricane watch means hurricane-force winds are possible, and tropical-storm-force winds could move in within 48 hours.

A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours. These winds could persist for days once they start.

These alerts currently cover parts of southern Haiti and Jamaica.

Forecast Track Scenario

Forecast models have narrowed down to just one forecast track near or over Jamaica, but there remains an outside shot that Melissa could alter from this:

• Sluggish movement into next week, then a delayed northeastward curl: It is increasingly likely that Melissa moves sluggishly north, then west over the western Caribbean Sea through early next week. This track will take the storm near Jamaica on Sunday and Monday before it finally accelerates northeastward toward Cuba and the Bahamas by the middle of next week.

This may be a long, drawn-out affair lasting well into next week.

For now, the threat to the mainland U.S. from Melissa — primarily to South Florida — appears to be very low, but not zero.

How Strong?

For the next few days, wind shear may keep Melissa from intensifying quickly. This difference in wind speed and/or direction with height can blow thunderstorms away from the center or tilt the circulation.

But by this weekend, that wind shear is expected to relax.

And Melissa will be over the most abundant supply of warm, deep water anywhere in the Atlantic Basin, serving as fuel for strengthening.

Land interaction with Jamaica and Cuba could limit the storm's intensity at some times.

(MORE: Rapid Intensification Is More Common Than You Think)

Flood Danger, Regardless

Regardless of Melissa's wind intensity, its slow crawl means some parts of the Caribbean will pick up additional heavy rainfall for several days into next week.

Parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba could pick up over 10 inches of additional rainfall through next week. Some bands or clusters of locally heavy rain are also possible in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Turks and Caicos, and parts of the Bahamas.

That heavy rainfall is likely to trigger life-threatening flash flooding and landslides in hilly and mountainous terrain.

(MORE: Why Slow-Moving Storms Are The Worst)

Wind Threat

According to the National Hurricane Center, hurricane conditions are possible in Haiti and Jamaica beginning Friday afternoon.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to move into Jamaica early Friday.

Number 13

Tropical Storm Melissa formed late Tuesday morning, the 13th storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

That's roughly on par with the average date of the 13th storm from 1991 through 2020 (Oct. 25), according to the National Hurricane Center. It's also one storm shy of the average number of storms for an entire season, 14.

Melissa is also the first storm of the season to track into the Caribbean Sea. As you can see in the season-to-date tracks map below, most other storms and hurricanes have curled north of the Caribbean Sea this season.

That's due either to steering winds in the Atlantic, or hostile conditions for development in the Caribbean Sea prior to Melissa.

Check back with us at weather.com for the latest forecast updates on Melissa, and elsewhere in the tropics.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.