Melissa Expected To Be Major Hurricane

Melissa is currently expected to become a major hurricane this weekend or early next week, and it could even become a Category 4 before all is said and done. How odd is it to see a hurricane with such strength so late in the season?

(FORECAST: Melissa Likely To Cause Major Flooding, Wind Damage In Jamaica)

Since 1921, there have been 10 such storms that have attained sustained winds of at least 130 mph in the last week of October or in November.

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Most recently, it happened with the 2020 twins of Eta and Iota, which both hammered Nicaragua. That's not terribly far away from Melissa's position.

Most of the hurricanes that have developed in that five-week period have occurred in the western Caribbean with storms tracking westward toward Central America or northward or northeastward across Cuba, Florida or the Bahamas.

This year, a few things are working in favor of such a storm like Melissa to become strong.

Firstly, the waters in this hurricane hotbed are very warm. The entire Caribbean and the Gulf are several degrees warmer than average for late October, which makes the weather think it is more like early October. The water around Jamaica and southern Cuba is in the mid- to upper 80s – well above the rough 80-degree threshold suggested for tropical development.

(WEATHER WORDS: Sea Surface Temperatures Explained)

Secondly, that warm water runs deep in the Caribbean. The 80-degree water exists down to a depth of more than 300 feet – some of the deepest warm water in the Atlantic basin. This means there is a lot of energy in the tank for a hurricane to tap into. You can see this in the chart below.

Speaking of other hurricanes, there have been none this hurricane season in the Caribbean. Not even a tropical storm until this week.

This means that nearly all of the heat that has been building this season is available for Melissa to use to become a powerful hurricane.

Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 9 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.