2015 Hurricane Season Off to Record Start: 11 Storms in Central, Eastern Pacific, Atlantic Basins Combined

It may not seem like it if you're focused solely on the Atlantic Basin, but the 2015 hurricane season is off to a record start. And, yes, El Niño is playing a strong role.

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Through July 13, there's already been 11 named storms in the eastern Pacific, central Pacific and Atlantic basins combined this season.

Dating to 1950, this is a season-to-date record, according to Colorado State University tropical scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach and National Hurricane Center specialist Eric Blake.

The previous peak number of named storms by July 13 occurred in the 2012 hurricane season, when four Atlantic named storms – including landfalling tropical storms Beryl and Debby – and six eastern Pacific named storms flared up by that date.

Of course, the standard disclaimers about the long-term historical record of tropical cyclones applies, particularly before the satellite era of the 1960s. 

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Leading the way is the hyperactive Pacific Ocean, which is under the influence of an El Niño that has strengthened steadily and is increasingly likely to become one of the strongest since at least 1997-98.

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Eight of the named storms have formed in the central and eastern north Pacific basins, an area defined as east of the International Date Line.

Central Pacific Trio

Perhaps most stunning is the three named storms that formed in the central Pacific basin, defined as the region between the International Date Line and 140 degrees West longitude. In just over 48 hours, Ela, Halola and Iune became tropical storms in the central Pacific from late July 8 through July 11.

"Only three central Pacific tropical storms formed in July from 1949-2014," said Blake in a tweet on July 11. That's three July storms in the previous 66 years.

Blake also noted the previous fastest flare-up of three central Pacific named storms was in an 18-day interval. The all-time record for the number of named storms to form in any full season in the central Pacific basin is four, which happened in 1982 during the developing phase of what would become a strong El Niño.

This rare burst of named storms has been fueled by unusually warm water temperatures as well as one of the strongest summer westerly wind bursts on record, a surge of anomalous west winds near the equator that helped boost tropical cyclone formation.

Perhaps the biggest boost to the late June/early July flurry of tropical cyclones in the Pacific was due to the supportive phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).

By a "wave" we mean the MJO has a supportive phase where upward motion in the atmosphere is strong. This helps boost the formation of clouds and can help thunderstorm clusters persist and organize into tropical cyclones. (Conversely, a suppressive phase of the MJO wave squelches precipitation.)

"This high-amplitude MJO set the stage for the sharp uptick in global tropical cyclone activity observed across numerous basins," said Dr. Michael Ventrice, operational scientist at The Weather Channel Professional Division. "The argument can be made that a series of 11 tropical cyclones have spun out of this remarkable MJO event in an eastward sequence with time."

Ventrice tweeted an image Tuesday that shows the supportive phase of the MJO, depicted by green contours, propagating around the globe coincident with the formation dates of tropical cyclones from Dr. Carl Schreck, a tropical meteorologist based in Asheville, North Carolina. 

In the eastern Pacific basin, two Category 4 hurricanes formed in record early fashion and were among the five named storms that contributed to the record season start.

Hurricane Blanca rapidly intensified to a Category 4 storm June 3 and became the earliest second major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin. Hurricane Andres was the season's first.

Atlantic: Three Despite the Hostility

The Atlantic Basin has manufactured three named storms, despite an atmosphere hostile to tropical cyclogenesis.

In classic El Niño fashion, wind shear – the difference in wind speed and direction with height typically hostile to tropical cyclones – has been off the charts over the Caribbean Sea, rendering that area virtually off limits for any named storms to form and contributing to a significant drought there.

On Mother's Day weekend, Tropical Storm Ana was the earliest East Coast landfall on record

A little more than a month later, Tropical Storm Bill soaked an already saturated southern Plains, Ozarks and Ohio Valley.

Finally, a disturbance that originated from a Midwest thunderstorm cluster sprouted convection over the Gulf Stream and developed into Tropical Storm Claudette on July 13. 

West Pacific Hyperactive, Too

While not officially included in the 11 named storm statistic, the western Pacific basin has also been on hyperdrive so far this season.

When using the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) metric to sum up the intensity of a season's named storms, 2015 tops 2004, the previous record year-to-date in the western North Pacific, according to Klotzbach.

Taking the western, central and eastern Pacific basins together, the north Pacific Ocean season-to-date ACE crushes the previous record, also from 2004.

"There were already three Category 5 equivalent super typhoons by mid-May, which is very rare," said senior meteorologist Stu Ostro. Those were Maysak, Noul and Dolphin.

All in all, the activity so far this hurricane season resembles what we would expect in a moderate-to-strong El Niño: a hyperactive Pacific basin and an Atlantic basin largely suppressed except for storms forming closer to the U.S. coast.

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