Where the October Hurricane Threat is the Greatest

The threat of Atlantic hurricanes still looms in October as residents of the East Coast were reminded last year with Hurricane Matthew, which made one official U.S. landfall on Oct. 8 southeast of McClellanville, South Carolina, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75-mph winds.

Before the South Carolina landfall, Matthew paralleled the coasts of Florida and Georgia, bringing wind gusts as high as 107 mph to Cape Canaveral, Florida, and a peak storm surge of 9.88 feet above normal at a National Ocean Service tide gauge at Fernandina Beach, Florida.

(RECAP: Hurricane Matthew)

Florida is the state most likely to see a landfalling hurricane in the month of October, with the southern part of the state at the highest risk.

Many Floridians consider October to be the peak of the hurricane season due to the increased number of hurricane strikes in that month, even though the peak of the hurricane season for the entire basin occurs in September.

It has been a while since the last October hurricane strike, however.

Prior to this month's pummeling by Category 4 Hurricane Irma, the last hurricane to make landfall in Florida was Hurricane Wilma on Oct. 24, 2005.

(MORE: Hurricane Central)

From 1851 to 2016, 32 hurricanes made a Florida landfall in October, dwarfing the state with the second-highest number of October landfalls: Louisiana, with nine.

There have been 17 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) that have made direct hits on the U.S. mainland in the month of October since 1851. Ten of those occurred in Florida.

The map above shows the 14 hurricanes that have made landfall in October since 1950. Eight of those occurred in Florida, and you can see the cluster of lines in South Florida.

(MORE: September 2017 Was the Most Active Month on Record for Atlantic Hurricanes)

Why Florida?

Even though the climatological peak of the hurricane season – Sept. 10 – has passed, residents along the Gulf and East coasts need to remain prepared for a hurricane. Roughly one-fifth of all U.S. hurricane landfalls have occurred in October and November.

On average, one hurricane forms every year in October, according to the National Hurricane Center. The most hurricanes to form in October was five in 2010.

By October, we typically see the formation zones of tropical storms and hurricanes shift west toward the western Caribbean Sea, eastern Gulf of Mexico and far western Atlantic Ocean as the "Cabo Verde" portion of the hurricane season, featuring development of African easterly waves in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, fades.

In South Florida, October is the month with the most hurricane direct hits. According to NOAA's Best Track Database, 23 October hurricanes have passed within 100 nautical miles of downtown Miami since 1851.

(MORE: How a Borderline La Niña Could Impact the Rest of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season)

With roughly one-third of an average Atlantic hurricane season left, a number of tropical storms or hurricanes may still form before season's end. Stay aware of what's brewing in the tropics on weather.com, and make sure your hurricane plan is ready in case a fall hurricane threatens.