Tornadoes Confirmed in Mississippi and Alabama; Severe Weather Threat Continues into Wednesday (FORECAST)

Over a half dozen reports of tornadoes came in from eastern Mississippi and far northwest Alabama Tuesday afternoon and evening, and the threat of severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will continue into Wednesday in parts of the Southeast. 

Virtually all the tornado reports were from the same supercell thunderstorm over a time period of 2-3 hours. National Weather Service damage surveys Wednesday will confirm the actual number of tornadoes.

(MORE: Damage Reported in Mississippi and Alabama)

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including some tornadoes, will continue into early Wednesday from the northern Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. At the same time, a swath of heavy snow with blizzard conditions will be ongoing to the north and northwest with Winter Storm Kayla.

(MORE: Winter Storm Kayla Targets Plains, Upper Midwest)

A sharp, southward plunge of the jet stream has pushed into the nation's midsection and will continue to slide east into Wednesday morning. In response, surface low pressure will intensify, tracking from the Plains into the Great Lakes, drawing warm, moist air north from the Gulf of Mexico. The strong wind fields associated with the jet stream will combine with modest amounts of instability (warm, moist air in low levels and colder, drier air in the upper levels of the atmosphere) to support a threat of severe thunderstorms.

Below is an outline of when and where severe thunderstorms will develop.

Severe Weather Forecast

Into Early Wednesday Morning

• The chance for severe storms should linger overnight in a swath from central Kentucky to Mississippi, Alabama, southeast Louisiana and the Florida panhandle.
• Main Threats: An isolated tornado and damaging wind gusts. Heavy rain due to slow-moving thunderstorms may trigger flash flooding, especially along the southern flank of the squall line.

Wednesday

• As the cold front slices east, thunderstorms are likely to flare up from parts of the mid-Atlantic states into the Southeast, from the Delmarva peninsula to the northern Gulf Coast.
• The severe threat will likely be much less significant than Tuesday, but at least a few severe thunderstorms with strong, straight-line winds, and perhaps a tornado appear possible, along with the threat of local flash flooding.

(MAPS: 10-day Forecast)

Thursday

• A slow moving cold front will bring the risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm to Florida.

Storm Reports So Far

As of late Tuesday night, a total of 8 reports of tornadoes were received by local NWS offices and the Storm Prediction Center, all of which were in either eastern Mississippi or far western Alabama.

A "wedge" (meteorologist jargon for a wide tornado) was observed near the towns of Aliceville and Carrollton, Alabama Tuesday evening.

Storm chaser and weather.com digital meteorologist, Quincy Vagell, tracked a tornado near the town of Scooba, Mississippi, snapping trees.

A tornado confirmed by radar produced structural damage in the town of Prismatic, about 20 miles north-northwest of Meridian, Mississippi.

Structural damage to a church and several barns was reported in Collinsvile, Mississippi from the same supercell responsible for downing trees, power poles and damaging homes south of Newton, Mississippi, by a tornado confirmed by Doppler radar just before 3 p.m. CST, according to the National Weather Service and Mississippi Highway Patrol. 

Many of these tornado reports were from the same supercell thunderstorm in eastern Mississippi. Later National Weather Service damage surveys will confirm whether it was one long-track, or several individual tornadoes.

Later Tuesday night, a tornado was reported in Beaverton, Alabama where a roof was blown off a house.

Flash flooding was reported around midday Tuesday on the east side of the Memphis metro area, with a left lane of Interstate 240 under a foot of water at the Interstate 40 interchange in the suburb of Cordova.

Into Tuesday night, flash flooding was reported from Indiana and Illinois into Mississippi and Alabama. Tuesday night, four to five homes were being evacuated in Star, Mississippi due to flooding. At least four cars were stuck in flood waters Tuesday evening in Evansville, Indiana.

On Sunday afternoon, as low pressure moved into Southern California a couple of trees were downed west of Santa Paula, California which trapped six vehicles due to wind gusts during a thunderstorm.

A tree also came down near Burbank across highway 134, which blocked a three to four lanes of the freeway.

Non-thunderstorm winds also caused damaged across Southern California and one death was reported due to a falling tree.

Near Santa Barbara, California flash flooding with mud and rocks across highway 154 was reported.

(MORE: Latest Severe Weather Impacts)

A Rare Early Risk Area

This prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue a rare day 7 outlook Wednesday for the Groundhog Day severe potential. This is done only in cases where there is relatively high confidence that far out in time of organized severe thunderstorms, or concern for an outbreak.

According to Dr. Patrick Marsh of the National Severe Storms Laboratory, the last time the SPC highlighted a severe risk area on day 7 was July 14, 2013. It's only the 11th time that has been done since late April 2008.  

National Weather Service meteorologist Taylor Trogdon compiled all previous cases since 2008 when the SPC outlined a severe risk area in their day 7 outlook.

An outbreak often, but not always, results, with some cases featuring a swarm of tornadoes, while others feature few tornadoes.

The Storm Prediction Center later issued a 30 percent day 5 outlook on Friday for the potential severe weather outbreak. This is the highest-tier outlook that can be issued so far out, further suggesting that there is high confidence in severe weather on Tuesday.

Check back with us at weather.com for updates on this potential severe weather outbreak.

PHOTOS: January Cape Coral, Florida Tornado