Tornadoes In February? Yes They Do Happen

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F​ebruary tornadoes are typical in much of the South, though they can happen anywhere conditions are favorable, as we saw in a strange February 2024 in the Midwest.

I​t's usually one of the least active months. The graph below shows that February is among the four least active months of the year in the U.S., averaging only about 42 tornadoes each year since 2004.

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B​ut any average tends to smooth out wide variations. February tornado counts in recent years have ranged from a record high of 147 in 2008 - we'll come back to that later - to a low of just one tornado in 2010.

T​hey're usually a Southern thing. The map below shows where tornadoes occur most often in February: mainly in the Deep South, but also in the Ohio Valley or parts of the Carolinas from time to time.

The elevated southern risk is because of its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, where warm, moist air can surge northward faster, adding instability to the atmosphere.

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes can develop in winter when a strong jet stream disturbance moves across the South, Ohio Valley or East and cold air near the surface is either in retreat or absent.

B​ut that wasn't the case in 2024. We've laid out what's average and typical. February 2024 certainly wasn't that.

A​ccording to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, 45 tornadoes were confirmed in the U.S. last February, pretty much on par with the average count for the month.

B​ut it's where they happened that made February 2024 weird.

I​n the map below, note how the majority of those tornadoes were in the Midwest, not in the South.

Most bizarre of all, Wisconsin had its first February tornado in records dating to before statehood on Feb. 8, 2024. One of the tornadoes was both strong (rated EF2) and was on the ground for 26 miles.

Then, fueled by record February and winter warmth before month’s end, 23 tornadoes touched down from northern Illinois into Lower Michigan, Ohio and New York state from Feb. 27-28. That included southeast Michigan's second February tornado on record, an EF2 at that.

L​arge February outbreaks have happened before. Both recent and past history have shown February can generate destructive and deadly outbreaks, despite the low average numbers.

The Super Tuesday outbreak of Feb. 5-6, 2008, had the most tornadoes for a single February event, with 86 confirmed over 10 states responsible for 57 tornado-related deaths. Five tornadoes were rated EF4. One of these tracked 122 miles across Arkansas, the longest tornado path of record in that state.

A​ Feb. 21-22, 1971 outbreak claimed 121 lives from Texas to North Carolina, the deadliest February rash of tornadoes in recent times. One F4 tornado near Oxford, Mississippi, killed 58 and injured 800 others, the deadliest single February tornado since 1950.

F​inally, a Feb. 19-20, 1884 outbreak spawned a swarm of stronger tornadoes across eight states in the Southeast. At least 182 deaths were documented, but since it's not known for certain how many tornadoes or deaths occurred, the outbreak was dubbed "The Enigma Outbreak", according to weather historian Christopher Burt.

Winter Tornadoes Are Dangerous

As we've discussed before, several factors make winter severe weather outbreaks dangerous.

Storms move rapidly: Severe thunderstorms can often move at speeds above 55 mph, given the strength of steering winds aloft. This is why it's best to take shelter immediately when you receive a warning. Don't waste precious time by going outside or looking out the window first. If you're in a warning, you're in danger.

Tornadoes can be rain-wrapped: Brief, rain-wrapped tornadoes can sometimes form with little warning when they're embedded in long squall lines of severe thunderstorms, even if no supercell thunderstorms develop. In some supercell tornadoes, rain might hide the tornado.

Straight-line wind damage: A fast-moving squall line of severe thunderstorms can produce straight-line winds on the order of those estimated with EF0 or, in rarer cases, EF1 tornadoes. Downed trees, power lines and even structural damage are possible in these situations, without a tornado in progress.

Severe weather can happen any hour of the day: Severe thunderstorms in winter can erupt overnight or in the morning, not necessarily during the typical late-afternoon or evening time frame, with such strong winter jet-stream energy.

Do you know where to take shelter if you receive a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning in the middle of the night? How would you receive that warning?

If you don't have one, it's time to review or develop a severe weather plan.