Tornado Central

Tornadoes in February: Yes, They Happen. Don't Underestimate the Threat

At a Glance

February averages the second least number of tornadoes per year.
The South is the most likely area for tornadoes during the month.

The past year has given us a sharp reminder that you cannot let your guard down in winter when it comes to tornadoes.

In late January a widespread tornado outbreak killed 20 people in the South. A year ago in February, a swarm of tornadoes touched down in parts of the South and East, killing seven people.

(RECAP: Deadly January 2017 Outbreak)

In the winter months, when a vigorous jet-stream disturbance swings across the nation's South, Ohio Valley, or East, with cold air near the surface either in retreat or absent, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes can flare up.

The map below shows where tornadoes happen most often in February: mainly in the Deep South, but occasionally in the Ohio Valley or parts of the Carolinas.

In the "possible" lighter red are locations that have a 0.10 percent probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point by late February. The "most likely" darker red shading is for locations that have a 0.20 percent probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point by late February. Based on 1982-2011 averages. (NOAA/Storm Prediction Center)

That's not to say tornadoes can't strike out of the areas shaded in red on rare occasions. On Feb. 24, 2016, the first deadly February tornadoes were recorded in Virginia, and the first F/EF2 or stronger February tornado on record formed in Pennsylvania.

February's Tornado History

February has averaged 35 tornadoes in the 20-year period of 1996-2015, making it the second-least-tornadic month, statistically a wash with January and December. As you would expect, there are extremes in relation to that average, both much lower and much higher, and we have several examples in recent years.

Average monthly U.S. tornadoes from 1996-2015.

Last February was the second-most tornadic dating to 1950 with 138 twisters. Only February 2008 had a greater number of tornadoes with 146 total. On the opposite end of the spectrum, February 2015 featured just two tornadoes, while February 2010 had the fewest tornadoes since 1950 with just one touching down during the 28 days.

(MORE: Tornado Central)

The so-called Super Tuesday outbreak Feb. 5-6, 2008, had the largest number of tornadoes for a single event with 86 touching down in the two days. Feb. 23-24, 2016 ranks as the second largest tornado outbreak during February with 75 confirmed, according to NOAA's storm events database.

February's deadliest tornado on record was an F4 that struck Mississippi on Feb. 21, 1971, killing 58 people, says Dr. Greg Forbes, severe weather expert with The Weather Channel. An outbreak of tornadoes Feb. 19-20, 1884, reportedly left 167 people dead in the Southeast.

Winter Tornadoes Are Dangerous

Several factors make winter severe outbreaks so dangerous:

Storms move rapidly: Given the strength of steering winds aloft, severe thunderstorms can often move at speeds exceeding 55 mph. This is why it's best to take shelter immediately when receiving a warning. Don't go outside or look out the window first to verify the threat.
Tornadoes can be rain-wrapped: Even if no supercell thunderstorms flare up, brief, rain-wrapped tornadoes can sometimes form with little warning embedded in long squall lines of severe thunderstorms. Even in some supercell tornadoes, rain may hide the tornado.
Straight-line wind damage: A fast-moving squall line of severe thunderstorms can produce straight-line winds on the order of those estimated with EF0 or, in more rare incidents, EF1 tornadoes. Downed trees, powerlines and even structural damage are possible in these situations, without a tornado ever forming.
Severe weather can happen any hour of the day: With such strong jet-stream level energy in winter, severe thunderstorms can erupt during the overnight hours, or in the morning, not necessarily during the typical late afternoon/evening timeframe you may be more familiar with.

If you don't have one, it's time to review or develop a severe weather plan.

Do you know where to take shelter if you receive a tornado warning in the middle of the night? How would you receive that warning? Severe weather will ramp up into March, followed by the peak months of April, May and June.

(MORE: Why Winter Tornadoes are so Dangerous)