What Are Your Chances Of Having A White Christmas? Here Are The Odds

When the calendar turns to December and temperatures feel like winter, many start hoping for a white Christmas. It’s too early to predict who might get snow, but we can look at what has happened in the past to get some clues.

So what is a white Christmas? It occurs when there's at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. It doesn't have to be snowing on the actual holiday for that to happen. A trace of snow also doesn't count.

How Typical Is A White Christmas?

The map below shows the locations with a historical chance of a white Christmas in any given year. The chances are based on averages from 1991 to 2020.

There isn't much territory outside the Mountain West, the far northern tier and northern New England where the odds of a white Christmas are higher than 50%.

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Last year, just 17.6% of the Lower 48 experienced a white Christmas. This was the lowest percentage since records began in 2003. Outside of the higher elevations of the West, there was an area of snow in the Central and Northern Plains and a few spots in the interior Northeast with snow on the ground.

Christmas 2022, 53% of the Lower 48 experienced a white Christmas, the highest percentage since 2009. Much of the West, Midwest and interior Northeast were covered in snow. This was mostly due to Winter Storm Elliott which brought widespread snow and bitterly cold temperatures.

On average, about 38% of the Lower 48 has snow on the ground on Christmas, according to 21 years of data compiled by the NOHRSC. Since 2003, those percentages have varied widely from year to year, from 17.6% in 2023 to a whopping 63% of the contiguous U.S. in 2009.

Regional Historical Odds

Let's take a closer look at various white Christmas statistics, including the yearly probability, the number of white Christmases in each city's historical record and the last time it happened.

The annual probability is based on data from the National Weather Service from 1991 to 2020.

Northeast

Not much snow was on the ground in the Northeast last Christmas. Even areas where a white Christmas is more common like Syracuse and Buffalo did not have snow last year.

While there was no snow last year, New York City has seen up to 8 inches on the ground on Christmas (in 1912), and 7 inches is the top Christmas snow depth in Washington, D.C. (2009).

N​ew England

A white Christmas was in short supply in New England last year.

Both Burlington, Vermont, and Caribou, Maine, had a brown Christmas in 2023, but have had more than 30 inches of snow on the ground in Christmases past.

The record snow depth in Boston on Christmas morning is 11 inches (1995). Concord, New Hampshire, has measured up to 26 inches on the ground (1970). Boston last had a white Christmas in 2009, while Concord had a few inches on the ground in 2021.

Midwest

Marquette, Michigan, has a 96% chance of a white Christmas but it didn’t happen last year. It was a mild Christmas with temperatures near 60 as far north as Chicago.

Cleveland and Detroit have a top Christmas snow depth of 13 inches (in 2005 and 1951, respectively). Both last had a white Christmas in 2022.

Plains

A few white Christmas wishes came true in the Plains last year.

Pierre, South Dakota, had 2 inches on the ground, and 4.2 inches of snow fell during the day. However, Minneapolis and Duluth, Minnesota, and Bismarck, North Dakota, where white Christmases are more common, did not have snow last year.

In 2022, Omaha, Nebraska, and Kansas City, Missouri, had an inch of snow on the ground for Christmas.

West

Parts of the West did have a white Christmas last year.

Billings, Montana, had an inch of snow on the ground in 2023. Their record Christmas snow depth is 9 inches in 1984.

Seven years ago, Seattle and Portland experienced their sixth white Christmases on record. Seattle had 2 inches of snow that Christmas morning.

In Alaska, Anchorage and Fairbanks unsurprisingly saw snow on the ground on Christmas morning last year, with 26 inches and 18 inches on the ground, respectively.

Yes, It Has Happened In The South

Christmas snow cover isn't just a northern thing. Some years, parts of the southern U.S. have marveled at the sight of a white Christmas. But it's been more than 10 years since a white Christmas was observed in much of the South.

The extensive cold and widespread snow reached as far south as Tennessee in 2022. A​ trace of snow was reported on the ground in 2022 in Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Memphis, Tennessee. The greatest Christmas snow depth in Memphis (10 inches) happened in 1963, while Tulsa's record is 6 inches in 2009.

In 2020, a white Christmas was observed in Knoxville, Tennessee, (2 inches) and Roanoke, Virginia (1 inch). Nashville had a trace of snow on Christmas Day in 2020.

Three relatively recent events brought an unusual Christmas Day snow cover to parts of the South:

-In 2009, Oklahoma City had a snowstorm of record (13.5 inches), and one of only two white Christmases on record occurred in Dallas (2 inches).

-In 2004 in Texas, Corpus Christi had a record snowstorm (4.4 inches), and Brownsville (1.5 inches) had its first day of measurable snow since 1895. Brownsville is on the same latitude as Miami, Florida.

-In 1989, a pre-Christmas snowfall was followed by a strong arctic cold outbreak that brought both Charleston, South Carolina (4 inches), and Savannah, Georgia (2 inches), their only white Christmases. Jacksonville, Florida, missed a white Christmas by a day when an inch of snow fell Christmas Eve morning. It had melted by Christmas Day.