A severe weather outbreak, including a threat of tornadoes, hail and damaging winds, is possible in the Plains beginning Sunday, and at least some threat of storms is in play through Saturday in some of those same areas.

Through Friday

W​e do expect at least scattered severe thunderstorms through Friday in parts of the central U.S. But the threat is generally quite low to average for this time of year, with threats of mainly strong wind gusts and/or hail.

T​hursday: Parts of the Plains from western Illinois and Missouri to Kansas, southern Nebraska, eastern Colorado, northwest Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.

F​riday: Many of the same areas as Thursday, but not in Colorado, New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.

The map below shows where rain and thunderstorms are currently happening along with any watches or warnings.

Saturday

Scattered supercell thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening in the Central Plains in the area shaded in the map below.

L​arge hail, strong wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible as the storms fire up near a frontal boundary, a dryline and an area of low pressure. These thunderstorms may form into clusters overnight on the eastern edge of the area shown below (Iowa, Missouri).

K​ansas City, Omaha and Wichita are among the cities in this threat zone Saturday.

Sunday

The most widespread threat appears to be in the area shaded in red below in what could be an outbreak of severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, hail and damaging winds in the afternoon and evening.

One or more clusters of severe thunderstorms could persist Sunday night from the upper Midwest to the Southern Plains.

This includes Minneapolis, Sioux Falls and Lincoln.

Monday 

M​onday could be the most widespread threat of severe thunderstorms, possibly extending from Texas to Michigan. Tornadoes, damaging winds, hail and flooding rain are all threats Monday and Monday evening.

The area most likely for severe weather Monday is shown in red below, including Des Moines and Omaha.

Tuesday And Beyond

T​uesday, more severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of the frontal system from parts of the Southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

W​ednesday and Thursday, at least scattered severe storms are possible yet again from parts of Texas to the Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. It's not clear whether any severe threat will also extend into parts of the East.

(​MAPS: 7-Day US Forecast Rain)

Setup

We are in what is typically the peak tornado month across the Lower 48. No other month comes close on average, but we have seen some outbreaks this March and April.

Severe weather needs four main ingredients, which are all in plenty of supply in May.

You need shear, which is changes in wind speed and direction in the atmosphere. In May, the jet stream is still strong, providing plenty of shear.

You also need plenty of lift, which is provided from the series of cold fronts that often move across the county. Cold fronts bring cooler, dense air in contact with warm, less dense air. When that happens, that warm air cools and condenses into clouds that can form storms. 

Then you also need instability. With spring well underway, daily heating provides plenty of instability, seen on the graphic below. 

Finally, consider moisture, which the East has plenty of. Surges of moisture from the Gulf provide the fourth piece of the severe weather puzzle. 

Everyone stay weather aware as these areas are subject to expand in the coming days.

Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master’s degrees from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.