2026 NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The Atlantic hurricane season's first storm typically arrives in June, and while that doesn't happen every year, the setup could be somewhat favorable for modest tropical development near the Southeast U.S. coast as we turn the calendar.

When It Usually Happens

• In the satellite era since the mid-1960s, the season's first storm has developed most often in June. The National Hurricane Center calculated the first storm usually arrives by June 20.
• The last two years, Alberto (2024) and Andrea (2025) became storms on June 17 and June 23, respectively.
• But there's considerable spread in the first storm month, especially recently. Only three of the past 12 hurricane seasons had the first storm form in June. Five of those 12 years had a May storm, including four straight years from 2018 through 2021.

(MORE: The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Names List)

Where It Usually Happens

• June storms typically form either in the Gulf, off the Southeast U.S. coast or in the extreme northwest Caribbean Sea.
• This is because most of the rest of the Atlantic Basin is typically hostile for tropical development this early in the season due to factors such as bursts of dry air from the Sahara Desert and strong wind shear.
• In 2024, Tropical Storm Alberto formed in the far southwestern Gulf. In 2025, Tropical Storm Andrea briefly sprung to life in the North Atlantic Ocean east of Bermuda.

What Could Happen This Time

• Some computer models are suggesting a stationary front could set up around the first of June from off the Southeast coast into the Gulf.
• Small areas of low pressure sometimes form along these frontal boundaries. If thunderstorms can cluster and persist near these areas of low pressure, a tropical depression or storm can eventually form.
• While this scenario is somewhat common early in the season, it's not certain whether that will happen this time.
• For now, there's nothing to be overly concerned about. We'll watch this closely as the hurricane season kicks off.
• The first storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will be named "Arthur".

Not A Predictor Of Entire Season

• Even if a storm manages to develop by early June, that doesn't necessarily mean the season will be active.
• The Weather Company/Atmospheric G2, Colorado State University and NOAA all expect a less active Atlantic hurricane season, due to both an intensifying El Niño and less warm ocean water between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, the string of islands on the eastern edge of the Caribbean Sea.
• However, it only takes one storm to make even a quieter hurricane season an infamous one. Prepare every hurricane season the same, regardless of seasonal outlooks.

(El NIÑO IMPACTS: Hurricane Season | Where They Go | Caribbean Travel Tips)

Some Notable 'A' June Storms

Sometimes, these first storms of the season are impactful, given they tend to form closer to land.

• 2010: Alex quickly strengthened from a late June tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane before slamming into northeast Mexico with storm surge, up to 35 inches of flooding rain and damaging winds.
• 2001: Tropical Storm Allison, and its remnants, lingered for days, unleashing feet of rain and epic flooding over southeast Texas, including the Houston metro area.
• 1957: In late June, Hurricane Audrey rapidly intensified in the western Gulf before driving an 8 to 12-foot storm surge into southwest Louisiana. Audrey killed 416 in the U.S., making it the 7th deadliest continental U.S. hurricane landfall on record. Many of those deaths were from storm surge.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.​