Ask A Met: What Is The Outlook For The Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season?
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Caitlin Kaiser
ByCaitlin Kaiser
4 days agoUpdated: May 30, 2026, 7:02 am EDTPublished: May 30, 2026, 8:00 pm EDT
Ask A Met - Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook

This week's question comes from Morning Brief readers Dennis and Ron, who ask, "What is the outlook for the Pacific hurricane season?"

Meteorologist Caitlin Kaiser: Although the Atlantic hurricane season outlook typically steals the headlines, NOAA also releases a forecast for both the Eastern and Central Pacific basins each year.

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

Timeline: May 15 - Nov. 30

This year NOAA's outlook calls for the following:

  • 15-22 Named Storms
  • 9-14 Hurricanes
  • 5-9 Major Hurricanes

The 2026 outlook is forecasting more activity than average across the board, with an average season typically seeing 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

Central Pacific Hurricane Season

Timeline: June 1 - Nov. 30

The Central Pacific basin is also expected to see an above-average season with five to 13 combined named storms and tropical depressions.

This is compared to the 4.4 combined named storms and tropical disturbances seen in an average season.


And you might find yourself asking why those two basins are expected to see above-average seasons while the Atlantic is forecast to be below.

Well, it all comes down to El Niño's differing regional impacts.

The warming waters of the Pacific, lead to more rising air and less hostile wind shear in the Pacific basins, which makes the environment more favorable for storm formation.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic typically sees an increase in wind shear during strong El Niño seasons, which makes storm formation more difficult.

And if you're wondering why the Pacific is split into two basins, it is to split up forecasting responsibilities between the National Hurricane Center in Miami and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Hawaii. The line between responsibilities is at 140 degrees west longitude. There are actually several other basins in the Pacific handled by Japan, Fiji, New Zealand and Australia.

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