Tropical Storm Bertha has formed in the eastern Gulf and poses a threat of heavy rain, gusty winds and storm surge along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana and Texas.

The National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory on T.D. Two late Sunday morning as it was centered south of Panama City, Florida. Hurricane Hunters found sustained winds of 40 mph Monday evening, making the system Tropical Storm Bertha – the second storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

NEW: Tropical storm warnings have been issued from the Florida/Alabama border westward to southeastern Louisiana. Tropical storm watches have also been issued for New Orleans and southern Louisiana.

(MORE: El Niño factoring into hurricane season outlook)

Here are the latest alerts

The map below shows where tropical storm watches and/or warnings are in effect.

These alerts mean tropical storm conditions are either possible (watch) or expected (warning). Tropical storm conditions could begin tonight in the Florida Panhandle.

(MORE: Tropical Storm Bertha maps tracker)

Additionally, storm surge watches have been issued from the Alabama/Florida Border to the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana. Life-threatening inundation could occur in these areas.

Where Bertha is now

The radar and satellite map below shows that Bertha is slowly drifting toward the northwest or west-northwest in the eastern Gulf. Bertha is a rather broad system with showers spread far from its center, from parts of Florida to Louisiana, with a center of circulation located south of Panama City Beach, Florida.

Here is the latest forecast

Where Bertha may go

The storm won't move much before Tuesday, but is then expected to begin a west or west-northwest track starting Tuesday on the southern periphery of a heat dome.

By late Wednesday, Bertha will be near the Louisiana coastline. How far into Louisiana or into the Gulf Bertha tracks is uncertain, then possibly into Texas after that if the storm survives that far west.

Much of Bertha's active weather – that is, rain and wind – may be swept southward by strong winds aloft. Don't expect this to be the prettiest looking storm.

How strong it could get

Bertha is expected to battle wind shear and dry air, two nemeses of tropical storms, for several days, but is expected to strengthen.

How strong Bertha becomes not only depends on how well it fights off wind shear and dry air, but also its track.

If Bertha's center runs into land, that would mean a less strong storm as it loses its energy source from the Gulf.

But if Bertha's center stays over the Gulf longer, it could be stronger, feeding off the warm Gulf water in the mid-upper 80s until its final landfall later this week.

There is a decent chance that Bertha either runs aground or succumbs to wind shear and dissipates by Friday or Saturday.

All interests along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas should monitor this forecast closely for any changes.

Now is always a good time to make sure you're prepared for hurricane season, well before any storms threaten.

(MORE: How to stay safe in hurricane season)

Soaking rain possible

Locally heavy rain is possible with Bertha from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana and Texas through next weekend.

Some areas could see up to 8 inches of rain, triggering local flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

This forecast also depends on the exact track of Bertha and how far west the system gets, which again is uncertain at this early stage.

Other threats

Some coastal flooding and storm surge, especially at high tide, can be expected as Bertha organizes and gains strength along at least parts of the northern Gulf Coast.

Up to 4 feet of storm surge is possible along the Alabama and Mississippi coasts and along the Louisiana coast north of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Storm surge is also possible in the Florida Big Bend and as far west as Morgan City, Louisiana. For storm surge in your community, here is the latest forecast.

That will also be accompanied by rip currents, so it's probably best to stay out of the water at Gulf Coast beaches this week, even if the weather at the time looks okay.

A few tropical tornadoes or waterspouts are also possible along the northern Gulf Coast this week.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.​