Tropical Storm Bertha will battle strong wind shear as it poses a threat of locally heavy rain, gusty winds and coastal flooding along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana and Texas.

(MORE: El Niño factoring into hurricane season outlook)

Here are the latest alerts

Tropical storm warnings extend from the Alabama-Florida border to eastern Orleans, eastern St. Bernard and eastern Plaquemines Parishes in Louisiana.

Tropical storm watches extend westward of the warnings to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana, including the New Orleans metro area.

These alerts mean tropical storm conditions are either possible (watch) or expected (warning).

(MORE: Tropical Storm Bertha maps tracker)

The storm surge watch has been discontinued along the northern Gulf Coast, and a coastal flood warning has been issued for portions of the southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines.

Where Bertha is now

The radar and satellite map below shows that Bertha is slowly drifting toward the northwest or west-northwest in the northern Gulf.

Bertha's weird look in the map below is because stronger northeast winds aloft are blowing most of the thunderstorm activity south of its center, though a few bands of rain are trying to work their way closer to its center.

Because of this, the bulk of Bertha's heaviest downpours are staying offshore for now.

However, some 40 to 50 mph wind gusts have been measured along the Florida Gulf Coast from Keaton Beach along Apalachee Bay to just offshore of Pensacola.

Here is the latest forecast

Where Bertha may go

Bertha will turn westward, riding on the southern periphery of a heat dome of high pressure over the U.S.

By late Wednesday, Bertha will be near the Louisiana coastline, and could then either move inland, or brush the coast through Thursday.

Whatever is left of Bertha is then forecast to move into eastern Texas by Friday before it dissipates.

How strong it could get

Bertha is battling wind shear and dry air, two nemeses of tropical storms. Given that, we don't anticipate additional strengthening.

In fact, there is a decent chance Bertha either runs aground in Louisiana or succumbs to wind shear and dissipates sooner than the forecast above indicates.

Soaking rain possible

Due to this wind shear and dry air coming from the mainland, most of the heavy rain from Bertha will likely remain over the Gulf.

That said, locally heavy rain is possible from northern Florida at least to southern Louisiana. This may lead to flash flooding in a few areas through Thursday.

For now, the heavy rain and flash flood threat for eastern Texas from Thursday night into Friday looks only isolated, particularly near the upper Texas coast.

Other threats

Some coastal flooding and storm surge, especially at high tide, can be expected along parts of the northern Gulf Coast.

Up to 4 feet of storm surge is possible along the Alabama and Mississippi coasts and along the Louisiana coast north of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Storm surge is also possible in the Florida Big Bend and as far west as Vermilion Parish, Louisiana. For storm surge in your community, here is the latest forecast.

Wave action in the Gulf will also be accompanied by rip currents, so it's probably best to stay out of the water at Gulf Coast beaches this week, even if the weather at the time looks okay.

A few tropical tornadoes or waterspouts are also possible along the northern Gulf Coast this week.

Bertha's history

The National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory on T.D. Two late Sunday morning as it was centered south of Panama City, Florida.

A Hurricane Hunter mission found sustained winds of 40 mph Monday evening, making the system Tropical Storm Bertha – the second storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.​