Ski and snowboard season is almost here in the U.S. I know that many of us are itching to hit the slopes, but you may have to wait a little longer than you did in years past to start the season.

Here's when the first measurable snow typically falls

The map below uses data from the National Weather Service to show the month when the average first accumulating snow falls, based on 1991-2020 data. Keep in mind these are averages and any given season can produce its first snowfall either very early or very late, depending on the weather pattern.

Your best bet for getting an open slope in any given year is in the Rockies. Arapahoe and Keystone often trade the title of first to open in October each year. Timberline in Oregon typically isn't far behind, but has to wait on the later first snow.

If you're staying on the East Coast, Sugar Mountain in North Carolina is often a good bet, but you'll have to wait until November in many years. Other nearby spots may not open until December.

It generally breaks down into these months:

• September or October: The Rockies to the Northern Plains, northern Great Lakes and northern New England.
• November or December: Much of the Midwest and East.

The warming world is changing the start to ski season

Autumn across the U.S. has warmed by an average of 2.8°F since 1970, according to Climate Central. Winter temperatures are warming even faster.

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While NOAA cautions that there is no universal statement that can be made about a delayed start to snowfall, warming is having several impacts that skiers and all-around winter-lovers should be aware of:

• The number of days with freezing temperatures is decreasing. This means the number of snow days and snow-making days is decreasing.
• In the West and Northeast, more precipitation is falling as rain and less precipitation is falling as snow.
• Two-thirds of locations in the U.S. see less snow than they did in the 1970s.
• One bright spot: If you can ski around the Great Lakes, there is more snow there due to warming lakes. The Great Lakes have stayed warmer longer in recent years, leading to less ice. This means that the lakes evaporate more moisture throughout the winter and end up producing more snow downwind of the lakes.

Now for a wet blanket: El Niño

I didn't want to leave today without a quick look specifically at this winter.

Since our last article in June, our confidence has increased in a very strong El Niño and forecasts are anticipating that the strength will be stronger than anticipated earlier this year.

This likely means that warmer weather and less snow are ahead for many northern ski resorts from Washington to Montana this winter. There will still be batches of cold air like any other winter, but they will likely be fewer and farther apart. Expect more manmade snow.

Where you might want to try the first ski trip of the season

All things above in consideration, I would look for areas with both elevation and the right temperatures and moisture.

Places like Arapahoe Basin or elsewhere in Colorado at a high elevation won't have to fight temperatures so warm that snow is difficult to find.

Places in the Four Corners may also get more moisture this year with help from El Niño. California may also get a boost, so the Sierra Nevada resorts like Mammoth Mountain might be a good bet once temperatures get cool enough. You may have to wait into November or later this year.

Avoid the Northwest and far Northern Rockies (and southwest Canada) until we can lock in on a wintry pattern, but there's no guarantee that this arrives this year.

The trick will be getting the weather to actually cooperate with what is expected this winter. You can begin watching the weather roughly ten days to two weeks before your trip to see if you need to make arrangements.

Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 10 years. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.