Tropical Storm Fausto is approaching Hawaii, but don't change your travel plans. High surf is ongoing across all of the islands, but the worst of the rain and wind is likely to stay away from Hawaii.

Where Fausto is now and where it is going

Fausto is several hundred miles east of the Big Island and moving westward at a fast clip.

It is being guided by a sprawling area of high pressure to the north, which will be in place through the entire forecast. Forecasts currently have the storm tracking just north of the islands.

(MORE: The latest on El Niño)

Fausto continues to weaken and will continue to do so as it gets closer to the islands.

Strong winds aloft, a large batch of dry air and cooling waters are the reasons for the weakening.

Get More of Our News on Google

Set The Weather Company as a 'Preferred Source' to get quicker access to the news you value.

The current forecast continues to weaken Fuasto to a minimal tropical storm before it reaches the Hawaiian Islands, with no hurricane threat expected.

Tropical systems would like water temperatures to be at least 80 degrees for the development of thunderstorms. Waters east of Hawaii are currently a few degrees on either side of that benchmark.

(MORE: Hawaii's hurricane history)

Potential impacts

The first impact that we are already starting to notice in Hawaii is an increasing swell on east-facing shores. High surf warnings are in place calling for waves up to 16 feet. This will peak Wednesday. North-facing shores could see an increase in surf by Tuesday.

You also may notice that there is a change in winds from the everyday trade winds to Fausto's.

The typical east-northeast wind will turn north as Fausto approaches, and there will be an increase in moisture and gustiness with this change. Strong winds aloft could keep much of the strongest winds at the surface north of the islands.

While direct impacts from bands of rain are unlikely, heavy rain is possible along the north and east-facing shores. Gusty winds are also possible along the coastline and in elevated terrain.

El Niño could bring more threats this year

The warming waters across the Pacific this year with the upcoming super El Niño are already supercharging the Pacific hurricane season.

Genevieve is rapidly intensifying as it moves through the Pacific. That makes seven named storms by late July, when the average is closer to 5-6 storms. We are nearly on track for the number of hurricanes, though.

During most seasons, storms tend to struggle to survive from Mexican waters closer to Hawaii. Cool sea surface temperatures and upwelling currents cut off their fuel supply, causing tropical storms to weaken and fade.

The map below is mostly lit up with oranges and yellows to signify above-average water temperatures. You can still see some of that chilly north Pacific water spilling south, but not to the extent that it usually is.

NOAA expects twice the number of tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific compared to average, in part due to El Niño. Numbers-wise, the average number of tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes is 4-5. NOAA expects 5-13 this season.

Not only will we likely see more storms like Fausto that come from closer to Mexico, but there's also a chance of more homebrew-type systems that form closer to Hawaii.

(IN DEPTH: Pacific hurricane season expected to see boost during El Niño)

In November 1982, another super El Niño year, Hurricane Iwa nailed Kauai, Hawaii, with destructive high winds and storm surge. Over $300 million in damage was reported in Kauai and Niihau and 2,300 homes were damaged. Iwa was Hawaii's costliest natural disaster at the time before a much stronger Hurricane Iniki raked Kauai 10 years later.

Not all El Niños will bring destructive storms to Hawaii, but the chances are tipped higher for such a strike this year.

Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 10 years. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.

The Weather Company and Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, share data: we provide certain data Kalshi uses to resolve markets, and Kalshi provides market data featured in content like this article. Kalshi alone operates its event-contract exchange and is responsible for the contracts, trading, and settlement on its exchange. If you use our links to communicate with Kalshi and then open a Kalshi account or trade on Kalshi, we may earn a fee.

For Kalshi’s complete member agreement, click here.