August could be hotter than usual in much of the western U.S., but keep its cool in parts of the Midwest and Northeast, according to a just-released outlook by Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company.

Key temperature takeaways

• The best chance for a hotter than average August is in the northern and central Rockies, including parts of Montana, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and Colorado.
• We also expect a hotter August than usual in parts of the South, including Oklahoma and Texas, as well as Florida, Georgia and parts of the Carolinas.
• As you can see in the animation below, our outlook has trended warmer in parts of the Midwest, compared to the outlook from mid-July.
• That said, the best chance for at least a somewhat cooler August appears to be in the Great Lakes, upstate New York and northern New England.

One factor in this forecast is how often July's temperatures in the U.S. persist into August, according to Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2 and chief author of the outlook.

Crawford also noted the hot West and not-as-hot East pattern forecast is also consistent with past Augusts during strong El Niños.

August's precipitation outlook

• August may be drier than average in parts of Texas, perhaps into southern Oklahoma.
• Given recent heavy rain and flash flooding over central Texas, that drier August may be a bigger drought concern in Oklahoma, rather than Texas.
• While typically the dry season, August may also be drier than usual in the Northwest, where wildfires have been a challenge already in recent weeks.
• Otherwise, August may skew a little wetter from the Southwest into the upper Midwest and Northeast.
• Typically hurricane season begins to ramp up significantly starting in mid-August, a wild card for rainfall in the South and East.
• But the intensifying El Niño could suppress tropical development until at least the second half of August, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.