We're heading into the peak of a hurricane season quieted by El Niño, but a handful of notable storms have defied expectations during these otherwise subdued years.

Super El Niño: The basics

Put simply, a super El Niño is just a very impressive warming of the Pacific near the equator that throws weather around the world off its usual grind. For the tropics, it usually means that we see a quieter hurricane season in the Atlantic. 

(LATEST: CSU forecasts blame El Niño for sluggish season)

There have been four such events recently: 2015-16, 1997-98, 1991-92, 1982-83 and 1972-73. The El Niño of 1991-92 was left out of analyses here since it developed after hurricane season ended.

Storm tracks that occurred in super El Niño years are shown in the map below. 

There are only 12 tracks in those four years combined, an average of only three per year, less than half in an average hurricane season. Some of those hurricane seasons did act like they were expected to. 1982 only had two hurricanes. That’s still tied for the least number of hurricanes in one season to date. 

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As you’ll read below, storms can form whenever and wherever they want as long as the atmospheric conditions are right, including during an El Niño. 

And not all El Niños are created equal. Should the Atlantic be piping hot or lacking in dry or dusty air, the basin can still be busy despite El Niño. This happened in 2023. 

Hurricanes that didn’t know about El Niño

Let’s start with storms that formed where they shouldn’t have during super El Niño years. Then we’ll take a look at other storms that formed during such years. 

Hurricane Erika (1997)

Hurricane Erika formed exactly where hurricanes shouldn’t form during a super El Niño – in the tropical Atlantic region known as the Main Development Region (MDR) where strong winds often weaken hurricanes during El Niño events. 

Erika was as classic of a Cabo Verde hurricane as you can get during El Niños. It developed from a tropical wave from Africa, then recurved clockwise across the Atlantic just north of the Leeward Antilles before passing east of Bermuda and falling apart north of the Azores. 

Despite battling strong winds aloft (called wind shear or westerlies in the linked discussions), it became not only the first (and only) hurricane, but also the first Category 3 hurricane during the months of August and September that year. 

Erika was able to find warm water and more favorable winds aloft and took advantage of that.

Other storms have done the same thing in the deep tropics. 

Hurricane Fred (2015)

Fred got things rolling right after it came off the coast of Africa, becoming a hurricane before it even got to Cabo Verde. It had broken the record at the time for becoming the easternmost hurricane. 

Remember, if storms can find favorable conditions for strengthening, El Niño or not, they will do so. 

Unfortunately for Fred, it remembered that El Niño often brings wind shear. The storm’s life ended early as strong winds aloft shaved off its thunderstorms and the storm petered out a couple of days later. The storm had no chance of recovery after moving over cooler water. 

Hurricane Danny (2015)

Danny was a storm that made the most of its situation, but again, succumbed to wind shear that can be linked to El Niño. 

It became a hurricane in the MDR roughly midway between Cabo Verde and the Lesser Antilles under lighter winds aloft, but otherwise, its environment wasn’t great. The storm was surrounded by dry, dusty Saharan air. 

Danny hiccupped that dry air out successfully enough to become a hurricane until El Niño’s calling card – say it with me: wind shear – came along. That did Danny in, and it barely got to the Caribbean Sea.

(MORE: El Niño is already affecting this hurricane season. What's next?)

Now, let's take a look at a storm that wasn’t quite in El Niño’s crosshair, but did develop in an El Niño year in a big way: 

Hurricane Joaquin (2015)  (RECAP)

Joaquin’s story takes place north of El Niño’s influence, but as you’ve seen with the last storms mentioned here, it happened in an El Niño year. 

Joaquin relentlessly attacked the Bahamas during a slow multi-day loop while the storm was a Category 3-4 storm. Impacts from storm surge and strong winds across the archipelago were widespread. 

While it was not directly from Joaquin, an atmospheric river stemming from the hurricane fed major flooding in South Carolina in early October 2015. Up to 25 inches fell. Strong onshore winds and higher than usual tides brought even more flooding to the coastal Carolinas and mid-Atlantic.

At least 25 people died and over 400 roads were flooded. Total damage from this flood event cost $2.7 billion.

Hurricane Agnes (1972) 

Coming from the Gulf, Agnes was a Category 1 that made landfall in the Florida Big Bend before becoming the costliest hurricane in U.S. history at the time. 

Much of its legacy is captured as a floodmaker not in Florida, but in Pennsylvania, where 50 people were killed and thousands of homes and businesses were lost. 

Damage was felt across 12 states, but was most severe in Pennsylvania, New York, Maryland and Virginia.

Agnes killed 119 people across the U.S. as it dragged up the East Coast.

For more on Agnes, step through history, personal stories and lessons learned here from the storm's 50th anniversary.

(MORE: El Niño could impact this winter weather)

Take home message

As we enter super El Niño, we know people are hearing that El Niño means no hurricane season. We hope that this shows that big storms are possible every year.

Yes, you can relax a bit this hurricane season, but check in with us every so often. Hurricanes aren't going to be going away completely. There's always a chance.

The weather won't stay quiet for too long.

Looking past hurricane season, this winter could bring some truly remarkable weather – much wetter winter months from California to Florida and probably some wild weather around the world.

Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 10 years. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.