The Atlantic hurricane season is off to its least active start in almost 40 years, struggling to generate storms in regions that usually shift to a higher gear in August toward a mid-September peak.

Where are we right now?

There have only been three tropical storms that have been active for a combined 4.5 days, according to Colorado State University.

The most impactful of those was Arthur in mid-June, but most of its flooding impacts in the Deep South happened after the storm became a remnant low.

About a month later, Tropical Storm Bertha hugged the Gulf Coast, but only brought locally heavy rain to a few areas.

And in mid-August, Tropical Storm Cristobal formed in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean and only lasted 24 hours.

We also had two tropical waves last week that almost reached the point of becoming at least a tropical depression. But wind shear and dry air tore these up before we even could see Dolly or Edouard, the next names for the basin.

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So we're left with a tropical outlook map from the National Hurricane Center that looks like what you see below.

Instead of the usual train of systems that could develop from Africa to the Caribbean Sea, there's just a few areas with a chance of development farther north, including one area northwest of Portugal, of all places.

How weird is this?

The fourth named storm on average usually arrives by August 15, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The first hurricane usually arrives by August 11.

So, we aren't too far behind in either named storms nor the first hurricane's arrival.

But by another metric, we're way behind a typical pace.

Accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, is a measurement meteorologists use to not just count storms, but also how long each storm lasts and how strong each becomes. Adding the ACE of each storm gives us one measure of how active a season is.

In terms of ACE, it's been the slowest-starting Atlantic hurricane season since 1988.

As of August 21, only four other hurricane seasons in the satellite era started slower than 2026: 1988, 1984, 1977 and 1967.

Could it get weirder?

As we alluded to earlier, August typically becomes much more active in the Atlantic, especially in the month's latter half.

The graphic below shows the acceleration of activity that begins in August, leading to the peak in the second week of September.

September is historically the peak because sea surface temperatures are at their warmest and atmospheric conditions are the most favorable for tropical development.

But, if we get through the first week of September without another named storm, this could be the slowest start to any hurricane season in the satellite era, since 1966.

El Niño is playing its part

The intensifying El Niño has been the largest contributor to the way this hurricane season has unfolded.

Stronger El Niños typically increase wind shear, or changes in wind speed and direction, in the Atlantic Basin. This increase in wind shear can shred storms before they even develop, or weaken ones that do.

(MORE: Your guide for everything El Niño)

That will likely continue. The graphic below shows all September hurricanes during super El Niño years.

There was only one September hurricane in each of those years. But even though the threat is low, it isn't zero.

A recent August shoutout, with a caveat

There was one recent hurricane season which failed to produce a single storm in August.

That was in 2022, the first time that happened since the rapidly strengthening El Niño of 1997.

(MORE: No named storms August 2022)

But the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season pivoted quickly once the calendar turned to September.

Florida, in particular, got slammed that year. Hurricanes Ian and Nicole brought widespread damage to the state, and Fiona raked through Atlantic Canada as an intense post-tropical cyclone.

(MORE: Atlantic Hurricane Season 2022 |Ian Recap)

So what should you do?

A quieter hurricane season doesn't necessarily mean your area won't experience a storm this season.

It only takes one destructive landfall, or even a slow-moving, flood-producing weaker tropical storm to make a season memorable.

Pay attention throughout hurricane season. Should a storm find a pocket of favorable conditions, you can see a named storm suddenly develop. Should this occur closer to land, then you wouldn't have as much time to prepare.

Have a plan in place before storms form.

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Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master’s degrees from the University of Georgia, studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.