Storms experiencing rapid intensification are more common than you think
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In recent years, we have seen an uptick in named storms rapidly intensifying into hurricanes. Here's the reason why.

Jonathan ErdmanJennifer GrayRob Shackelford
ByJonathan Erdman,Jennifer GrayandRob Shackelford
11 hours agoUpdated: September 8, 2026, 11:36 am EDTPublished: September 8, 2026, 11:30 am EDT

What is rapid intensification? The hurricane trend forecasters watch

Tropical systems undergoing rapid intensification have become much more common in recent years, with seven hurricanes rapidly intensifying in 2024 and four rapidly intensifying in 2025.

Hurricanes that undergo rapid intensification can bring devastating impacts from heavy rain, gusty winds and storm surge to the coast.

These storms, being significantly stronger, can usually bring impacts further inland as well, bringing impacts to communities not used to what is seen at the coasts.

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The definition

Meteorologists define rapid intensification as an increase in a tropical storm or hurricane's maximum sustained winds of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less.

And while this is an accomplishment for storms to do this, some storms can more than double this criterion.

How does this happen?

Conditions have to be particularly favorable for storms to see increases in wind speed of this magnitude.

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Low wind shear, plenty of moist air and warm ocean temperatures are essential for a tropical cyclone to intensify. Also, smaller storms that can concentrate the heating from thunderstorms in a tight core have a better chance of rapid intensification than larger circulations. This happened for Hurricanes Oscar and Rafael, two smaller hurricanes in the 2024 season.

A 2018 NOAA study found various other factors explaining why some hurricanes rapidly intensify while others don't.

Milton Florida

Visible satellite image of Hurricane Milton over the Gulf of Mexico on Oct. 8, 2024.

((NOAA/CIRA/RAMMB))

Is this increasing?

In short: yes.

According to a 2016 study, 79% of major hurricanes experience rapid intensification.

One recent study of 35 years of tropical cyclones around the world found an increased chance of rapid intensification from 1982 through 2017. One of the authors of the study, James Kossin, said in an American Meteorological Society talk that the chance of rapid intensification increased by a factor of 5 in that period.

In the frenetic 2020 season, 10 of the 13 hurricanes rapidly intensified, particularly hurricanes Delta, Eta and Iota.

A separate 2023 study found Atlantic Basin hurricanes are twice as likely to rapidly intensify as they were 30 years ago.

Increasing ocean temperatures may be raising the chance of this happening, according to a 2021 study.

Ocean warmth was either at record or near-record levels in the Atlantic Basin's main development region for hurricanes, as well as the Gulf of Mexico in 2024.

The study also found only 6% of storms that don't rapidly intensify become major hurricanes. None of the four hurricanes of 2024 that did not rapidly intensify — Debby, Ernesto, Francine and Leslie — reached major hurricane status.

Climate Central also created a graphic showing the uptick in storms in the Atlantic that undergo rapid intensification.

Rapid Intensification

Why it's important

If the chances of rapid intensification are increasing, that also increases the chance of stronger hurricanes, some of which could make landfall at those higher intensities.

Furthermore, rapid intensification is a difficult challenge for forecasters, especially when it happens near land.

October 2023's Hurricane Otis was the poster child of this. Instead of its forecast Category 1 landfall, it unexpectedly mushroomed into a Category 5 hurricane before devastating Acapulco, Mexico, the country's costliest tropical cyclone on record.

Stronger storms can often bring more intense damage much farther inland. That was the case with Hurricane Helene bringing damage to the Carolinas.

Hurricane Helene

A fallen tree lies across a home in Asheville, North Carolina, in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene on September 28, 2024.

(Sean Rayford/Getty Images)

Recent examples

Hurricane Erin was notable in that it saw an increase of 85 mph in just over 24 hours, which is very impressive for the first Category 5 storm in 2025.

Hurricane Melissa doubled its wind speed in 24 hours when it went from a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph to a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph. It continued to strengthen to peak sustained winds of 185 mph.

Gabrielle and Humberto both also underwent rapid intensification. While both these storms didn't impact the U.S., Humberto was notable in that its large size and power actually pulled Hurricane Imelda away from a landfall in the Carolinas.

(MORE: Imelda and Humberto's intertwined tracks)

Imelda Track Change

2024's rapid intensifications

An impressive seven storms rapidly intensified in 2024. Rafael was the seventh and final hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season to rapidly intensify, following Beryl, Helene, Isaac, Kirk, Milton and Oscar.

All five major hurricanes of 2024, defined as Category 3 or higher, rapidly intensified.

The Seven 2024 hurricanes to rapidly intensify

Beryl set a series of records in 2024. The storm was the furthest east hurricane on record and also set the first Category 4 Atlantic hurricane in June.

(MORE: Beryl Recap)

Milton underwent two separate rapid intensifications: first from a minimal tropical storm to Cat. 1 hurricane, then an incredible 90-mph turbo boost from Cat. 1 to Cat. 5 intensity.


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