Your Hawaii travel plans this winter and spring may benefit from better weather due to a strong El Niño, despite one of the islands' most impactful hurricane seasons in decades.

Nolo's brush only the latest

If you've followed Hawaii's weather since August and you have a dream vacation booked to the islands, we can understand if you have a little anxiety right now.

Three hurricanes and one tropical storm had impacts in at least parts of the islands from mid-August through late September.

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Hurricane Nolo was the latest, though it passed far enough south of the Big Island and eventually moved just enough to minimize flood and wind impacts in the Big Island and parts of Maui.

Prior to that, Hurricane Lala triggered destructive flooding, Tropical Storm Moke drenched parts of the Big Island again, and then Hurricane Lowell slammed the western islands, Kauai in particular.

Since the late 1950s, only one other year — 2016 — had four tropical storms or hurricanes with at least some impacts in the islands. The 2016 foursome of Celia, Darby, Lester and Madeline had fewer impacts than what we've seen so far in 2026.

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El Niño could be a traveler's friend

Once hurricane season winds down in the Pacific, usually Hawaii's wetter season kicks into gear.

That's because the Pacific jet stream usually brings wet "Kona storms" to the islands from late fall through early spring, soaking not just the typically wet windward location, but drier areas downwind of mountains such as Honolulu and the Big Island's Kona Coast.

One such Kona storm last March brought disastrous flooding to parts of Kauai and Oahu.

But while stronger El Niños are Pacific hurricane season boosters, they're also rainfall squashers in the late fall through spring wet season.

That sudden dry out can happen as soon as November, lasting into the following summer, according to the National Weather Service.

During the last strong El Niño in 2015-16, Honolulu didn't pick up more than 0.4 inch of rain each month from December through April.

That's not entirely good news.

A drier wet season can eventually lead to expanding drought and wildfire threats by the following spring.

(MORE: Our complete coverage of El Niño)

What you should do

The likely record-setting El Niño means forecasters are more confident of typical Niño impacts, like a drier late fall through spring in Hawaii.

We can't predict exactly what one or two weeks' worth of weather during your vacation will be like this far out in time.

But the chance of Kona storms drenching part of your vacation in the islands is lower than usual.

So, keep those vacation plans full steam ahead.

Resorts and local businesses need your tourism dollars after this active hurricane season.

(MORE: How El Niño could impact your winter getaway elsewhere)

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.